10150 Stone Arch Dr · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 1976 3,223 sqft lot Est $90k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell! Light fixer, most of the hard work has already been done. This 1344 sq. ft. home features a light and bright living room, dining room, spacious kitchen, family room, separate laundry room, guest bedroom with direct access to guest bathroom, and a master bedroom with a large master bathroom. The exterior includes a spacious deck, shed, storage area, 3 car carport and a cement patio area in the back yard. The roof, HVAC system, and deck are 2 years new and the water heater was replaced last year. The home has great bones and a nice floor plan with lots of potential. Forest Springs is a Premier Park for residence 55+ and features a remodeled Clubhouse with a Full Kitchen, Activ

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Spacious deck
• Storage area

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• GUEST BEDROOM
• LARGE MASTER BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS DECK
• STORAGE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Postal address: 10150 Stone Arch Dr, Grass Valley, CA 95949; Located near Forest Springs Drive and La Barr Meadows Road; Lot lease amount listed separately by park
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: no

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; Attached covered parking and guest parking available; No enclosed garage (carport-style covered parking)
• Utilities: Propane service; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in kitchen; Internet available; Cable connected; Public water (water district); Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) sited in a park; Original condition; Built in 1976; Corner lot, regular-shaped, close to clubhouse
• Construction: Composition roof; Manufactured construction (Lancer make); Skirting: other
• Exterior features: Patio awning, carport awning and porch awning; Covered deck and uncovered patio; Attached porch with steps; Storage area / shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Pantry closet; Island; Laminate counters; Built-in electric oven, gas cook top, hood over range; Dishwasher, disposal, ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (includes master bedroom, guest quarters)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (propane); Central cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in electric oven; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker (plumbed); Gas water heater; Dual-pane full windows with screens; Porch steps, covered deck, uncovered patio and porch; Storage area / shed; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with stacked washer and dryer included; 220V in laundry; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.6% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.68%
• DSCR: 4.86
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	99
14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,337 (-0%)	1mo	$89,500	$67	88
10042 Grinding Rock Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$90,000	$63	82
10040 Stone Arch Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	82
10131 Shamrock Lode	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	1mo	$60,000	$40	77
10086 Grinding Rock Dr #208	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$75,000	$49	68
10088 Dalewood Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	0mo	$138,000	$96	65
10046 Dalewood Way	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$160,000	$111	65
10073 Dalewood Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$115,000	$80	64
13927 Meda Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+2%)	1mo	$140,000	$102	59
14969 N Country Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	1mo	$82,500	$57	57
10070 Dalewood Way	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	4mo	$130,000	$113	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $73,230
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.44×
• Total profit: $171,718
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $1,315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,360	-5% $1,337	+0% $1,315	+5% $1,292	+10% $1,270
Rent	-10% $1,138	-5% $1,226	+0% $1,315	+5% $1,403	+10% $1,491
Rate	-1.0pp $1,347	-0.5pp $1,331	base $1,315	+0.5pp $1,298	+1.0pp $1,281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	3d	1	1.28mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $15,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,762
• After-tax cash flow: $12,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-44.0%/yr

Latest (2021): $30 · -44.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.