39908 Axis Ave · Ponchatoula, LA
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +11.8/15.0
- Cash flow +10.6/30.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- 1% rule +3.3/10.0
- DSCR +3.1/10.0
- Rent growth +2.7/5.0
- Schools +2.2/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$286,765
39908 Axis Ave · Ponchatoula, LA 70454
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily
· 57 Days on market
Built 2026
9,583 sqft lot
Garage
$135/sqft
· 10% below area
Est $317k · 10% under
$33/mo HOA · 1% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
* 2/1 buydown with rate as low as 3.99% for the first 12 months. Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for current incentive details. * This CAREY V H has an open floor plan with upgraded quartz counters, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting and more. Special features include 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, undermount sinks throughout, kitchen island & walk-in pantry, luxury vinyl plank flooring in living room & all wet areas, tankless gas water heater, large walk-in closet, double sink vanity, garden tub & separate shower in primary, smart connect wi-fi thermostat, fully sodded yard with seasonal landscaping package & much more!
Key facts
- Open floor plan
- Quartz counters
- Stainless appliances
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (7.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (17.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $237k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
- Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Champ Cooper Elementary School (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #333 of 646 statewide, top 54%, 1,126 students, 57% FRL); Ponchatoula High School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #106 of 265 statewide, top 43%, 2,262 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 73% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 628 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer
$237,431
(17.2% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.83% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.71%
- Cash-on-cash
- -2.08%
- DSCR
- 0.91
- GRM
- 10.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $317,225
- List price
- $286,765
- Delta
- -9.60%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23728 Goose Point Dr | 0.21mi | 4/3.0 | 2,125 (-0%) | 2mo | $347,500 | $164 | 84 |
| 39698 Axis Ave | 0.32mi | 4/2.0 | 2,130 (0%) | 2mo | $287,835 | $135 | 84 |
| 39867 Axis Ave | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,884 (-12%) | 0mo | $268,680 | $143 | 74 |
| 40343 Cypress Reserve Blvd | 0.60mi | 4/2.0 | 2,079 (-2%) | 3mo | $260,000 | $125 | 66 |
| 40164 Hastings Ct | 0.70mi | 4/2.0 | 2,045 (-4%) | 1mo | $288,500 | $141 | 60 |
| 42322 Landing View Rd | 0.62mi | 4/2.0 | 1,957 (-8%) | 4mo | $249,900 | $128 | 54 |
| 40327 Sedgwick Ln | 0.45mi | 4/2.0 | 1,829 (-14%) | 2mo | $250,000 | $137 | 53 |
| 39488 Saint Louis Ct | 0.42mi | 4/2.0 | 1,813 (-15%) | 4mo | $268,000 | $148 | 53 |
| 24359 Dawson Ct | 0.48mi | 4/2.0 | 1,857 (-13%) | 6mo | $208,000 | $112 | 52 |
| 42376 Landing View Rd | 0.71mi | 4/2.0 | 2,346 (+10%) | 6mo | $275,000 | $117 | 45 |
| 24213 Wigeon Ave | 0.74mi | 4/2.5 | 2,417 (+14%) | 0mo | $285,900 | $118 | 41 |
| 40201 Hastings Ct | 0.72mi | 4/3.0 | 2,400 (+13%) | 3mo | $331,405 | $138 | 39 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -22.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.24×
- Total profit
- $-60,732
- Equity at exit
- $42,758
10-year hold
- IRR
- -23.9%
- Equity multiple
- -0.06×
- Total profit
- $-85,450
- Equity at exit
- $24,794
Cash invested: $80,294 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Louisiana
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 53 active · 18 under contract
- Months of supply
- 12.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $273,900 ($145/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 205 d
- This list price
- 72% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 70454
- Rents YoY
- 0.7%
- Active inventory
- 628
- Price-to-rent
- 10.1×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,374 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,504
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$358 /mo · $4,301/yr
- Insurance
- −$119
- HOA
- −$33
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$499
- Net cashflow
- $-139
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,550
Max offer price
$266,642
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $59 | -5% $-40 | +0% $-139 | +5% $-238 | +10% $-337 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-327 | -5% $-233 | +0% $-139 | +5% $-45 | +10% $49 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $5 | -0.5pp $-66 | base $-139 | +0.5pp $-213 | +1.0pp $-289 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $71,691
- Closing costs
- $8,603
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39638 Big Branch Dr Ponchatoula, LA | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2978 | $2,400 | $0.81 | 93d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 41095 Mersanger Rd Ponchatoula, LA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1510 | $1,950 | $1.29 | 93d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 40531 Cypress Reserve Blvd Ponchatoula, LA | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2597 | $2,750 | $1.06 | 93d | 1 | 0.84mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Energy-efficient features: insulation, efficient lighting, water heater, and windows
- HOA & community
- Homeowners association with an annual fee of $400
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage with two spaces
- Security
- Smoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Public waterNatural gas available
- Home design
- Single-story homeNew construction (under construction)Built by DSLD, LLCAsphalt roofSlab foundation
- Construction
- Brick and vinyl siding constructionAsphalt roofSlab foundationNew construction
- Exterior features
- Covered concrete patioIrregular lotLocated outside city limitsHome warranty included
Interior
- Kitchen
- CooktopDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveOvenRangeStainless steel appliancesPantryGranite countertops
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Gas heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Ceiling fansGranite countertopsPantryStainless steel appliancesWindow screensSmoke detectors
HOA detail $33/mo · $396/yr
- Likely covers
- watergasinternetlandscaping
Listing history 47 events
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2026-08-08days on market $286,765 Active 57 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $286,765 Active 56 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $286,765 Active 55 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $286,765 Active 54 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $286,765 Active 53 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $286,765 Active 52 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $286,765 Active 49 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $286,765 Active 48 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $286,765 Active 47 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $286,765 Active 45 DOM
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2026-07-25days on market $286,765 Active 43 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $286,765 Active 42 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $286,765 Active 41 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $286,765 Active 40 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $286,765 Active 39 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $286,765 Active 36 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $286,765 Active 34 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $286,765 Active 33 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $286,765 Active 32 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $286,765 Active 31 DOM
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2026-07-12days on market $286,765 Active 30 DOM
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2026-07-11days on market $286,765 Active 29 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $286,765 Active 28 DOM
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2026-07-09days on market $286,765 Active 27 DOM
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2026-07-08days on market $286,765 Active 26 DOM
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2026-07-07days on market $286,765 Active 25 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $286,765 Active 24 DOM
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2026-07-05days on market $286,765 Active 23 DOM
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2026-07-04days on market $286,765 Active 22 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $286,765 Active 21 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $286,765 Active 20 DOM
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2026-07-01days on market $286,765 Active 19 DOM
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2026-06-30days on market $286,765 Active 18 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $286,765 Active 17 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $286,765 Active 16 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $286,765 Active 15 DOM
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2026-06-27days on market $286,765 Active 14 DOM
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2026-06-26days on market $286,765 Active 13 DOM
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2026-06-23days on market $286,765 Active 10 DOM
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2026-06-21days on market $286,765 Active 9 DOM
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2026-06-19days on market $286,765 Active 7 DOM
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2026-06-18days on market $286,765 Active 6 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $286,765 Active 5 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $286,765 Active 4 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $286,765 Active 3 DOM
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2026-06-13remarks 674-char remark
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2026-06-13$286,765 Active 1 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
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Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,492
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,063
- − Property taxes
- −$4,301
- − Insurance
- −$1,434
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,279
- − Management
- −$2,279
- − HOA
- −$396
- − Depreciation
- −$8,342
- Taxable loss
- −$6,604
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,585
- After-tax cash flow
- $-84/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos
95/100
None rehab
This single-family home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good roof, siding, and landscaping, and the interior is modern and well-equipped. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and overall appearance of the home, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
- Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
- Both Upgrading the flooring in the living room — Upgrading the flooring can improve the overall appearance of the living room and increase the home's value. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Woodland Park Magnet
F
LA #597/646
Nat'l #39,071/41,679
High
Ponchatoula High School
F
LA #106/265
Nat'l #9,639/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Tangipahoa Parish
- NCES district ID
- 2201680
- Math proficiency
- 18% ▼ -32.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 29% ▼ -31.00%
- Median HH income
- $41,283
- Composite
- 19.94/100
- National rank
- #8676
- State rank
- #63 of 98 in LA
C
Composite livability gradescore 68/100
Livability — Ponchatoula
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #91
- US rank
- #9755
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime D-
Employment D
Housing A-
Health & safety A+
User ratings D
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Tangipahoa Parish · 144,204 people
- City population
- 34,564
- Metro
- Hammond, LA
- Population (ZIP)
- 34,564
- Household income
- $71,611
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2% of renters
Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 144,204 people
- By 2030
- 151,413 · +5.0%
- By 2040
- 164,374 · +14.0%
- By 2050
- 175,427 · +21.7%
- By 2075
- 195,165 · +35.3%
- By 2100
- 201,641 · +39.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (73%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 94% English-only · Spanish 5%
Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -83.55%
- Current HPI
- 129.6069
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.66%
- Metro
- Hammond, LA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.29%
- F500 in state
- 10
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Telecommunications | 2 | $23B |
|
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| Utilities | 1 | $12B |
|
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| Wholesale / Distribution | 1 | $5B |
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| Advertising | 1 | $2B |
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Price history
+0.0% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-12 Listed $286,765 Zillow
- 2026-06-12 Listed $286,765 AcadianaMLS
- 2026-06-12 Listed $286,765 GSREIN
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…