39908 Axis Ave · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$286,765

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 9,583 sqft lot Garage $135/sqft · 8% below area Est $313k · 8% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* 2/1 buydown with rate as low as 3.99% for the first 12 months. Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for current incentive details. * This CAREY V H has an open floor plan with upgraded quartz counters, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting and more. Special features include 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, undermount sinks throughout, kitchen island & walk-in pantry, luxury vinyl plank flooring in living room & all wet areas, tankless gas water heater, large walk-in closet, double sink vanity, garden tub & separate shower in primary, smart connect wi-fi thermostat, fully sodded yard with seasonal landscaping package & much more!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz counters
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• UNDERMOUNT CABINET LIGHTING
• KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Champ Cooper Elementary School (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #333 of 646 statewide, top 54%, 1,126 students, 57% FRL); Ponchatoula High School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #106 of 265 statewide, top 43%, 2,262 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 73% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 709 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $240,442 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,035
• List price: $286,765
• Delta: -8.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23728 Goose Point Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,125 (-0%)	4mo	$347,500	$164	83
39698 Axis Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,130 (0%)	3mo	$287,835	$135	82
39867 Axis Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (-12%)	2mo	$268,680	$143	73
40343 Cypress Reserve Blvd	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,079 (-2%)	4mo	$260,000	$125	64
40164 Hastings Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,045 (-4%)	3mo	$288,500	$141	58
42322 Landing View Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,957 (-8%)	6mo	$249,900	$128	53
40327 Sedgwick Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-14%)	4mo	$250,000	$137	52
39488 Saint Louis Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-15%)	5mo	$268,000	$148	52
24359 Dawson Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,857 (-13%)	7mo	$208,000	$112	50
42376 Landing View Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,346 (+10%)	8mo	$275,000	$117	43
24213 Wigeon Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,417 (+14%)	2mo	$285,900	$118	39
40201 Hastings Ct	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,400 (+13%)	4mo	$331,405	$138	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-59,286
• Equity at exit: $42,758

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-82,509
• Equity at exit: $24,794

Cash invested: $80,294 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,900 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 251 d
• This list price: 64% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 709
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,504
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,301/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,550

Max offer price $270,084

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $-16	+0% $-115	+5% $-214	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-210	+0% $-115	+5% $-20	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-42	base $-115	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,691
• Closing costs: $8,603
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39638 Big Branch Dr Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	3.5	2978	$2,400	$0.81	139d	1	0.18mi
40531 Cypress Reserve Blvd Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	2.5	2597	$2,750	$1.06	139d	1	0.84mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features: insulation, efficient lighting, water heater, and windows
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $400

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with two spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterNatural gas available
• Home design: Single-story homeNew construction (under construction)Built by DSLD, LLCAsphalt roofSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding constructionAsphalt roofSlab foundationNew construction
• Exterior features: Covered concrete patioIrregular lotLocated outside city limitsHome warranty included

Interior

• Kitchen: CooktopDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveOvenRangeStainless steel appliancesPantryGranite countertops
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansGranite countertopsPantryStainless steel appliancesWindow screensSmoke detectors

HOA detail $33/mo · $396/yr

• Likely covers: watergasinternetlandscaping

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $286,765 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $286,765 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $286,765 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $286,765 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $286,765 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $286,765 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $286,765 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $286,765 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $286,765 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $286,765 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $286,765 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $286,765 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $286,765 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $286,765 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $286,765 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $286,765 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $286,765 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $286,765 Active 79 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $286,765 Active 78 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $286,765 Active 77 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $286,765 Active 76 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $286,765 Active 75 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $286,765 Active 74 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $286,765 Active 73 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $286,765 Active 72 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $286,765 Active 71 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $286,765 Active 70 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $286,765 Active 69 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $286,765 Active 68 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $286,765 Active 67 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $286,765 Active 66 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $286,765 Active 65 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $286,765 Active 64 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $286,765 Active 63 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $286,765 Active 62 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $286,765 Active 61 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $286,765 Active 60 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $286,765 Active 59 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $286,765 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $286,765 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $286,765 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $286,765 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $286,765 Active 54 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $286,765 Active 53 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $286,765 Active 52 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $286,765 Active 49 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $286,765 Active 48 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $286,765 Active 47 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $286,765 Active 45 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $286,765 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,063
• − Property taxes: −$4,301
• − Insurance: −$1,434
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,342
• Taxable loss: −$6,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,512
• After-tax cash flow: $129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good roof, siding, and landscaping, and the interior is modern and well-equipped. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and overall appearance of the home, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the living room — Upgrading the flooring can improve the overall appearance of the living room and increase the home's value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodland Park Magnet F LA #597/646 Nat'l #39,071/41,679 High Ponchatoula High School F LA #106/265 Nat'l #9,639/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 144,204 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features: insulation, efficient lighting, water heater, and windows
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $400

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with two spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterNatural gas available
• Home design: Single-story homeNew construction (under construction)Built by DSLD, LLCAsphalt roofSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding constructionAsphalt roofSlab foundationNew construction
• Exterior features: Covered concrete patioIrregular lotLocated outside city limitsHome warranty included

Interior

• Kitchen: CooktopDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveOvenRangeStainless steel appliancesPantryGranite countertops
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansGranite countertopsPantryStainless steel appliancesWindow screensSmoke detectors

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $286,765 Zillow
• 2026-06-12 Listed $286,765 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $286,765 GSREIN