15629 Ashland Ave · Harvey, IL 60426

$118,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1927 3,125 sqft lot Est $187k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is on a quiet block, just blocks from Ingalls Hospital. Was rented previously. It is sold as-is but in good condition.

Key facts

• 3,125 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1927

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing or immediate
• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 total parking spaces (2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 1.5-story design; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick and cedar exterior; Built more than 90 years ago; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Parcel dimensions approximately 25 x 125; Less than 0.25 acre lot; School bus service and commuter bus access; close to interstate

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (10 x 8) with ceramic tile flooring
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on second floor (12 x 12) with hardwood flooring; Second bedroom on second floor (12 x 10) with hardwood flooring; Third bedroom on second floor (10 x 8) with hardwood flooring
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in main living areas and bedrooms; Ceramic tile in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Unfinished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement (10 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#539 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($816 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $118k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,230 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.74%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15702 Marshfield Ave	0.11mi	4/1.0	1,500 (-2%)	7mo	$90,000	$60	83
15811 S Marshfield Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,564 (+2%)	1mo	$205,000	$131	79
46 E 155th St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	8mo	$139,900	$87	70
15730 Paulina St	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,702 (+11%)	4mo	$115,000	$68	67
16024 Myrtle Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (-2%)	1mo	$195,000	$130	66
112 W 155th St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,470 (-4%)	7mo	$159,999	$109	66
15708 Park Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (-4%)	0mo	$167,500	$114	64
16145 Honore Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	0mo	$204,900	$136	62
48 E 154th St	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,422 (-7%)	4mo	$205,000	$144	59
16122 Ashland Ave	0.60mi	4/1.5	1,381 (-10%)	7mo	$230,000	$167	49
16110 Wolcott Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-7%)	2mo	$119,000	$83	46
15122 Ashland Ave S	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,675 (+9%)	11mo	$205,000	$122	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $86,725
• Equity at exit: $106,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.21×
• Total profit: $238,066
• Equity at exit: $229,248

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60426

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,650/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16048 Halsted St Unit 2 Harvey, IL	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	24d	1	1.13mi
14802 Cooper Ave Harvey, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,700	$1.42	24d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $118,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $130,000 Active
16. 2025-04-04
    soldstatus $65,000
17. 2019-09-02
    historical
18. 2019-08-27
    price
19. 2019-08-22
    price
20. 2019-08-22
    status Reactivated
21. 2019-08-15
    historical
22. 2019-08-09
    status Reactivated
23. 2019-07-21
    price
24. 2019-07-21
    status Pending
25. 2019-07-21
    status Reactivated
26. 2019-07-15
    historical
27. 2019-06-25
    price
28. 2019-06-24
    status Reactivated
29. 2019-06-05
    status Pending
30. 2019-05-21
    price
31. 2019-02-06
    price
32. 2018-12-09
    price
33. 2018-12-03
    price
34. 2018-11-28
    price
35. 2018-11-15
    listed New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,650 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,650 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$3,650
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $2,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$623
• After-tax cash flow: $3,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Harvey

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #11162

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harvey, IL
• City population: 23,066
• Population (ZIP): 23,066

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% White 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.36%
• Current HPI: 313.7895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $130,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-02 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-27 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-22 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-22 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-09 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-21 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-21 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-21 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-25 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-24 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-05 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-21 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-06 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-09 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-03 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-28 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-15 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,650 · +52.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.