628 Woodland Ave · Moberly, MO 65270

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1918 $57/sqft · 36% below area Est $233k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

STATELY HISTORIC HOME LOADED WITH CHARM. 4 BEDROOMS-5 POSSIBLE, 2 BATHS, LARGE ROOMS, OFFICE IN UPPER LEVEL, BEAUTIFUL ORIGINAL HARDWOOD, ORIGINAL STAIRCASE, FIREPLACE IN LR USED FOR ESTHETIC PURPOSES, NEW ROOF INSTALLED THIS SUMMER AND FOUNDATION HAS BEEN RE-ENFORCED. TWO MAJOR EXPENSES HAVE BEEN COMPLETED FOR NEXT OWNER. PARTIAL UNFINISHED BASEMENT, LOTS OF OUTDOOR SPACE, RECENTLY SURVEYED, 24' X 68' DETACHED GARAGE/SHOP. WAITING TO BE COMPLETED. Professional photos will be available soon.

Key facts

• Hardwood
• Outdoor space
• Original staircase

Tags

• HARDWOOD
• ORIGINAL STAIRCASE
• FIREPLACE IN LR
• NEW ROOF
• FOUNDATION RE-ENFORCED
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,033
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -35.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1008 Union Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,511 (-4%)	19mo	$229,900	$92	53
803 E Mckinsey Pl	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,410 (-8%)	15mo	$285,000	$118	46
1006 Bradford Cir	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,942 (+12%)	2mo	$430,000	$146	45
735 Farror St	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,362 (-10%)	21mo	$219,000	$93	44
406 E Logan St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,415 (-8%)	20mo	$160,000	$66	40
316 Taylor St	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,300 (-12%)	9mo	$189,000	$82	40
1009 Bradford Cir	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,317 (-12%)	9mo	$387,000	$167	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,412
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,361
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65270

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $813/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,161

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-11-25
   listed $150,000 Active 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   STATELY HISTORIC HOME LOADED WITH CHARM. 4 Bedrooms, 5 possible, 2 Baths, Large Rooms, Office Space Upper Level, Beautiful Original Woodwork, Original Staircase. Fireplace in LR used for Esthetic Purposes. New Roof installed this Summer and Foundation has been re-enforced. Two Major Expenses have been completed for the next owner. Partial unfinished basement, Lots of Outdoor space, Recently surveyed, 24' x 68' Detached Garage/Shop Combination. Waiting to be Completed. Professional Photos will be available soon.

2. 2025-11-25
   listed $150,000 Active 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   STATELY HISTORIC HOME LOADED WITH CHARM. 4 Bedrooms, 5 possible, 2 Baths, Large Rooms, Office Space Upper Level, Beautiful Original Woodwork, Original Staircase. Fireplace in LR used for Esthetic Purposes. New Roof installed this Summer and Foundation has been re-enforced. Two Major Expenses have been completed for the next owner. Partial unfinished basement, Lots of Outdoor space, Recently surveyed, 24' x 68' Detached Garage/Shop Combination. Waiting to be Completed. Professional Photos will be available soon.

3. 2008-03-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,455 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$642/yr (+$53/mo · 78.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$813
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moberly
• NCES district ID: 2921100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,160
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #6984
• State rank: #246 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moberly

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moberly, MO
• Population (ZIP): 16,762

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,596 people
• By 2030: 24,213 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,184 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 22,081 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 18,994 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 15,070 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.3% · R 75.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.15%
• Current HPI: 199.9743
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-25 Listed $150,000 RCBR
• 2025-11-25 Listed $150,000 CBORMLS
• 2008-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $813 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.