Aftonwood Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$328,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,034 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Design excellence and attention to detail make every day in The Aftonwood family home plan an amazing living experience. Growing minds and unique decorative styles will have a superb place to call their own in the beautiful spare bedrooms. The distinguished study provides an ideal spot for a home office, library, or media lounge. Your refined Owner's Retreat includes a sensational en suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. Your open floor plan offers a sunlit interior décor space that adapts to your everyday life and special occasion needs. The gourmet kitchen features a step-in pantry and a presentation island. Explore the LifeDesign℠ advantages of this spectacular new home plan.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Open floor plan
• Owner's retreat

Tags

• DISTINGUISHED STUDY
• OWNER'S RETREAT
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $323,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, Aftonwood plan; New construction; Active listing
• Exterior features: Located at 1196 Wandering Brk, Magnolia TX 77354

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (2,034 finished); New construction plan (Aftonwood)

🏗️ New construction. The $328,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $350,057.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-762 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,706 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.34%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,057
• List price: $328,990
• Delta: -6.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42546 Summer Crest Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,035 (0%)	2mo	$320,000	$157	82
42564 Edmund Rucker Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,015 (-1%)	1mo	$324,990	$161	71
42595 Rustico Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,984 (-2%)	2mo	$371,900	$187	71
42690 Mystery Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,034 (0%)	1mo	$338,990	$167	70
42711 Loma Vista Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,068 (+2%)	1mo	$344,990	$167	68
42591 Rustico Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-4%)	2mo	$349,900	$179	68
1503 Velado Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,150 (+6%)	3mo	$339,990	$158	63
42631 Reminiscent Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,176 (+7%)	3mo	$329,990	$152	61
42715 Loma Vista Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,866 (-8%)	0mo	$328,990	$176	58
42548 Edmund Rucker Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (-4%)	1mo	$314,900	$162	57
42563 Rustico Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (-14%)	1mo	$289,990	$167	49
42710 Loma Vista Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,741 (-14%)	0mo	$314,990	$181	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $136,611
• Equity at exit: $315,359

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $430,554
• Equity at exit: $680,083

Cash invested: $98,016 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,836
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,251/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,062

Max offer price $239,724

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,514
• Closing costs: $10,502
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $328,990 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $328,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $328,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $328,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $328,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $328,990 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $328,990 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $328,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $328,990 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $328,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $328,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $328,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $328,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $323,990 Active 693-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,609
• − Property taxes: −$5,251
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$10,183
• Taxable loss: −$15,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,757
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B