124 Serene Way · Toms River, NJ 08755

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Excellent condition $153/sqft · 29% below area Est $170k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-BR 1-bath home delivers standout curb appeal w/classic white siding, black shutters, & a striking entry accented by gray cedar shake and white board-and-batten detailing. Inside, the bright &open layout features drywall, crown molding, and vinyl flooring throughout, creating a clean and cohesive look. The kitchen is stylish and functional, offering a gas range with overhead microwave, dishwasher, shaker-style cabinetry, and a tile backsplash. The bathroom includes a walk-in shower, while high-efficiency heating and cooling help keep utility costs low year-round. A thoughtfully designed home that blends charm, comfort, and efficiency awaits you. There is no HOA fee- There is a land lease of $641.72 per month, includes RE Taxes.

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• Vinyl flooring
• Black shutters

Tags

• CLASSIC WHITE SIDING
• BLACK SHUTTERS
• GRAY CEDAR SHAKE
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• CROWN MOLDING
• VINYL FLOORING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $119,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$169,950) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.55%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,950
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -29.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Quiet Way	0.18mi	2/1.5	840 (+7%)	1mo	$106,000	$126	77
707 Schley Ave	0.39mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (-18%)	3mo	$86,084	$135	49
1307 Arthur St	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (-18%)	8mo	$84,002	$131	47
1701 Arthur St	0.38mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (-18%)	7mo	$250,000	$391	46
73 Camino Rio	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	910 (+16%)	2mo	$189,900	$209	42
123 Camino Roble	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (+24%)	5mo	$150,000	$155	41
123 Camino Roble #123	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (+24%)	7mo	$150,000	$155	39
1310 Arthur St Unit C1310	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (-18%)	30mo	$160,000	$250	34
903 Mississippi St	1.08mi	2/2.0	965 (+23%)	22mo	$215,000	$223	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $70,064
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $176,481
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $270,000 ($312/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -30.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,910 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $1,404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,487	-5% $1,445	+0% $1,404	+5% $1,362	+10% $1,321
Rent	-10% $1,174	-5% $1,289	+0% $1,404	+5% $1,519	+10% $1,634
Rate	-1.0pp $1,464	-0.5pp $1,434	base $1,404	+0.5pp $1,373	+1.0pp $1,341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Vans Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	823	$2,625	$3.19	0d	1	0.72mi
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	56d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $119,900 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $119,900 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-08-03
   days on market $119,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-07-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $119,900 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-07-28
   days on market $119,900 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-07-26
   days on market $119,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $119,900 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $119,900 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $119,900 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $119,900 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $119,900 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,900 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,900 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,900 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $119,900 Active 125 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $119,900 Active 124 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,900 Active 123 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,900 Active 122 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $119,900 Active 121 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $119,900 Active 120 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $119,900 Active 119 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 117 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $119,900 Active 116 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $119,900 Active 115 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 114 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 113 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 111 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 110 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $119,900 Active 109 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $119,900 Active 108 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $119,900 Active 107 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $119,900 Active 106 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $119,900 Active 104 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $119,900 Active 102 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $119,900 Active 101 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $119,900 Active 98 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $119,900 Active 97 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $119,900 Active 96 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $119,900 Active 95 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $119,900 Active 93 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $119,900 Active 92 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,900 Active 89 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 88 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 87 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 84 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 83 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$1,397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,794
• − Management: −$2,794
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $15,932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,824
• After-tax cash flow: $13,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2-BR 1-bath home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a thoughtfully designed layout. The property's curb appeal and landscaping can be further enhanced to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and add value. ↑
• Both Landscaping around gazebo — Maintaining and enhancing the gazebo area can increase curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Pond maintenance — A well-maintained pond can enhance the property's appeal and add value for both resale and rental. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joseph A. Citta Elementary School F NJ #851/1,303 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Toms River Intermediate School North F NJ #265/431 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Toms River High School North F NJ #210/399 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $119,900 MOMLS