124 Serene Way · Toms River, NJ 08755

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Excellent condition $153/sqft · 20% below area Est $150k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-BR 1-bath home delivers standout curb appeal w/classic white siding, black shutters, & a striking entry accented by gray cedar shake and white board-and-batten detailing. Inside, the bright &open layout features drywall, crown molding, and vinyl flooring throughout, creating a clean and cohesive look. The kitchen is stylish and functional, offering a gas range with overhead microwave, dishwasher, shaker-style cabinetry, and a tile backsplash. The bathroom includes a walk-in shower, while high-efficiency heating and cooling help keep utility costs low year-round. A thoughtfully designed home that blends charm, comfort, and efficiency awaits you. There is no HOA fee- There is a land lease of $641.72 per month, includes RE Taxes. Pets allowed

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• Vinyl flooring
• Black shutters

Tags

• CLASSIC WHITE SIDING
• BLACK SHUTTERS
• GRAY CEDAR SHAKE
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• CROWN MOLDING
• VINYL FLOORING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $119,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$150,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.67%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -20.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $54,229
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $142,290
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $1,155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	7d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $119,900 Active 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    This 2-BR 1-bath home delivers standout curb appeal w/classic white siding, black shutters, & a striking entry accented by gray cedar shake and white board-and-batten detailing. Inside, the bright &open layout features drywall, crown molding, and vinyl flooring throughout, creating a clean and cohesive look. The kitchen is stylish and functional, offering a gas range with overhead microwave, dishwasher, shaker-style cabinetry, and a tile backsplash. The bathroom includes a walk-in shower, while high-efficiency heating and cooling help keep utility costs low year-round. A thoughtfully designed home that blends charm, comfort, and efficiency awaits you. There is no HOA fee- There is a land lease of $641.72 per month, includes RE Taxes. Pets allowed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$1,397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,492
• − Management: −$2,492
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $12,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,063
• After-tax cash flow: $10,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2-BR 1-bath home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a thoughtfully designed layout. The property's curb appeal and landscaping can be further enhanced to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and add value.
• Both Landscaping around gazebo — Maintaining and enhancing the gazebo area can increase curb appeal and rental value.
• Both Pond maintenance — A well-maintained pond can enhance the property's appeal and add value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and add value. ↑
• Both Landscaping around gazebo — Maintaining and enhancing the gazebo area can increase curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Pond maintenance — A well-maintained pond can enhance the property's appeal and add value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $119,900 MOMLS