102 Trail Ride Way · Willis, TX 77318

$104,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured · 268 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $96/sqft · 50% above area Est $70k · 50% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 268 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.47%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,000
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: 49.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11614 Vistawood St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+12%)	3mo	$139,900	$115	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $11,856
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $35,590
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,583 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	44d	1	0.54mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	44d	1	0.54mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.55mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.57mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.67mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	0.67mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	1.38mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,900 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $104,900 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 250 DOM
14. 2025-12-04
    price $104,900 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

15. 2025-11-13
    status Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

16. 2025-11-13
    historical 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

17. 2025-10-15
    status Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

18. 2025-10-14
    historical 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

19. 2025-09-26
    status Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

20. 2025-09-26
    historical 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

21. 2025-09-23
    listed $119,900 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 910sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer. Unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Get your dream home at an unbeatable price of just $119,900.00. Act now and ask about our move-in specials!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $4,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,183
• After-tax cash flow: $5,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and neutral paint. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and attract both buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can significantly improve the home's resale value.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and attract both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can significantly improve the home's resale value. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $104,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-13 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-23 Listed $119,900 Zillow