2072 Royal Fern Ct Unit 12B · Reston, VA 20191

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 991 sqft · Condo

Built 1973 $445/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $445 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($762/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.5% in Reston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#7 in VA, #177 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Lakes High (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 2,530 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $215k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-33,543
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-34,992
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20191

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$445
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,444

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2044 Royal Fern Ct Unit 19/2A Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	860	$1,950	$2.27	24d	1	0.04mi
2018 Colts Neck Rd Unit 10/11B Reston, VA	2.0	1.0	991	$2,250	$2.27	24d	1	0.09mi
12065 Greywing Sq Reston, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	946	$2,064	$2.18	1d	21	0.25mi
11990 Heafield WAY Reston, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1164	$3,616	$3.11	1d	116	0.29mi
11830 Sunrise Valley Dr Reston, VA	3.0	1.0–3.0	1174	$3,038	$2.59	1d	26	0.43mi
12265 Laurel Glade Ct Reston, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	881	$2,248	$2.55	3d	8	0.49mi
11760 Sunrise Valley Dr #508 Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,950	$2.71	43d	1	0.55mi
11864 Breton Ct Unit 14A Reston, VA	3.0	2.5	1072	$2,900	$2.71	43d	1	0.56mi
2319 Freetown Ct Unit 23/21C Reston, VA	3.0	1.0	1004	$2,500	$2.49	43d	1	0.57mi
2319 Freetown Ct Unit 21C Reston, VA	3.0	1.0	1004	$2,500	$2.49	24d	1	0.57mi
11805 Breton Ct Unit 1A Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	903	$2,300	$2.55	1d	1	0.63mi
11815 Breton Ct Reston, VA	2.0	1.0	1073	$2,200	$2.05	43d	1	0.63mi
1925 Roland Clarke Pl Reston, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$3,225	$3.56	1d	22	0.70mi
2294 White Cornus Ln Reston, VA	2.0	2.5	1104	$2,250	$2.04	16d	1	0.71mi
11723 Karbon Hill Ct Unit T3 Reston, VA	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,250	$2.14	14d	1	0.75mi
12000 Inspiration St Reston, VA	3.0	1.0–2.5	982	$4,347	$4.42	2d	37	0.79mi
1897 Oracle Way Reston, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1062	$3,432	$3.23	1d	22	0.81mi
11800 Sunset Hills Rd Reston, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$2,800	$2.92	17d	2	0.85mi
11800 Sunset Hills Rd Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	842	$2,350	$2.79	43d	2	0.85mi
11800 Sunset Hills Rd Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	796	$2,300	$2.89	24d	2	0.85mi
11800 Sunset Hills Rd Reston, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,800	$2.81	20d	1	0.85mi
2225 Lovedale Ln Unit 1 Reston, VA	2.0	2.0	1108	$2,400	$2.17	24d	1	0.88mi
11500 Commerce Park Dr Reston, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,795	$3.17	1d	26	0.91mi
12025 Town Square St Reston, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$3,838	$4.18	1d	26	0.94mi
2231 Castle Rock Sq Unit 21C Reston, VA	3.0	2.0	1029	$2,418	$2.35	43d	1	0.94mi
12001 Market St #377 Reston, VA	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,500	$2.36	14d	1	0.95mi
12001 Market St Unit T51 Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	751	$1,899	$2.53	10d	1	0.95mi
1860 Stratford Park Pl #201 Reston, VA	2.0	2.0	930	$2,500	$2.69	12d	1	0.98mi
11659 Stoneview Sq Unit 11C Reston, VA	3.0	2.0	1029	$2,650	$2.58	43d	1	0.98mi
2247 Castle Rock Sq Unit 12C Reston, VA	3.0	2.0	1029	$2,650	$2.58	15d	1	1.01mi
12001 Market St Reston, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,500	$2.86	17d	2	1.01mi
11990 Market St #216 Reston, VA	1.0	2.0	939	$2,900	$3.09	18d	1	1.03mi
11645 Stoneview Sq Unit 1B Reston, VA	2.0	2.0	894	$2,000	$2.24	43d	1	1.03mi
12000 Market St Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	718	$2,025	$2.82	10d	2	1.04mi
12000 Market St Reston, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	818	$3,200	$3.91	5d	1	1.04mi
1815 Sycamore Valley Dr Reston, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	879	$2,545	$2.90	1d	9	1.05mi
11911 Freedom Dr Unit 1039947P Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	688	$6,390	$9.29	7d	1	1.06mi
11911 Freedom Dr Unit 1039943P Reston, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$7,374	$7.57	1d	2	1.06mi
11911 Freedom Dr Unit 1043417P Reston, VA	1.0	1.0	688	$6,823	$9.92	12d	1	1.06mi
11850 Freedom Dr Reston, VA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1152	$5,495	$4.77	1d	43	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $445 · $5,340/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-21
   historical
2. 2026-05-21
   listed $215,000
3. 2000-02-28
   soldstatus $73,500
4. 2000-02-02
   historical
5. 1999-12-27
   listed $73,500
6. 1995-08-30
   soldstatus $67,500
7. 1995-07-25
   historical
8. 1995-07-13
   listed $70,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − HOA: −$5,340
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$598
• After-tax cash flow: $1,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — Reston

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #177

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Reston, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 65,298
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,011
• Household income: $151,185
• Rent vs Own: 32.0% rent · 68.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 751.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 12% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -394.27%
• Current HPI: 335.9261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+205.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-02-28 Sold (MLS) $73,500 MRIS
• 2000-02-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-12-27 Listed $73,500 MRIS
• 1995-08-30 Sold (MLS) $67,500 MRIS
• 1995-07-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 1995-07-13 Listed $70,500 MRIS