15214 Evening Light Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$354,740

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

GORGEOUS finishes in this NEW DR HORTON 1 story 4 Bedroom home in Mill Creek Estates! Open Concept Living at its finest! MODERN features include 42" Cabinets, Built In Oven w/ 5 Burner Gas Cook-top, Large Farmhouse Sink, Lovely Primary Suite with Separate Tub & Shower, Smart Home, Deako Smart Switches, LED Canlights, 8' Solid Core Interior Doors w 5" Baseboards, Full Sprinklers, RINNAI Tankless Water Heater! Covered Patio w/ Gas Stub!! Great Outdoor Space! MILL CREEK ESTATES IN MAGNOLIA, TX offers beautiful lots, WALKING TRAILS, Playground, Pool, & BRAND NEW DOG PARK, Zoned to MAGNOLIA ISD! DR Horton is America's #1 Homebuilder! Come out to MILL CREEK ESTATES and make t

Key facts

• Led canlights
• Open concept living
• Smart home

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• BUILT IN OVEN
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• SMART HOME
• DEAKO SMART SWITCHES
• LED CANLIGHTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: D.R. Horton
• HOA & community: Association (Inframark); Annual association fee; Community pool; Dog park; Playground; Park; Curbs; Clubhouse and recreation facilities included in association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for security; Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces south; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Hot tub/spa (spa: hot tub); Subdivision lot; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Quartz counters; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 15 x 14; Bedroom (first level) — 12 x 10; Bedroom (first level) — 12 x 10; Bedroom (first level) — 11 x 11
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Quartz counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vanity; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows; Reverse osmosis system
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $354,740 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,986.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,608 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,986
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40814 Hawthorne Glades St	0.30mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+1%)	0mo	$279,990	$149	80
40807 Hawthorne Glades	0.27mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+1%)	2mo	$259,990	$137	77
40966 Seasoned Oak Ln	0.29mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+1%)	3mo	$254,990	$135	75
41046 Riverside Meadows Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+10%)	3mo	$366,540	$178	72
14805 Prickly Pear Cv	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,934 (+4%)	3mo	$295,000	$153	67
15019 Baikal Teal Ter	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (+3%)	0mo	$317,900	$165	67
40603 Balsam Run Ln	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+9%)	1mo	$321,990	$158	62
40610 Mill Creek Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,082 (+12%)	2mo	$575,000	$276	61
15315 Mountain Plover Pl	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,689 (-10%)	1mo	$299,990	$178	56
15307 Mountain Plover Pl	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,064 (+11%)	1mo	$314,900	$153	54
15459 Park Perch Pl	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,061 (+10%)	2mo	$309,990	$150	51
15443 Park Perch Pl	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,064 (+11%)	2mo	$327,900	$159	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $147,827
• Equity at exit: $265,747

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $428,303
• Equity at exit: $573,093

Cash invested: $82,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,660

Max offer price $280,794

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $4	+0% $-98	+5% $-200	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-298	-5% $-198	+0% $-98	+5% $2	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-23	base $-98	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,746
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	0.25mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	0.35mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.51mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.76mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	1.03mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	1.23mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $354,740 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 681-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $354,740 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,435
• − Management: −$2,435
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,581
• Taxable loss: −$6,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $354,740 HARMLS