2636 Southern Dr · Gautier, MS 39553

$174,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1968 10,454 sqft lot Est $124k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 Bedrooms and 2 full baths. A block from elementary school. No flood ins. required. Total remodel. New roof, paint, flooring, plumbing and electrical fixtures, cabinets, counters, appliances.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• TOTAL REMODEL
• NEW ROOF
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL FIXTURES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard partial fencing; City lot, level and rectangular

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Gautier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#89 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, employment D.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,941 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2823 Woodlane St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,011 (+8%)	2mo	$160,900	$159	74
2307 Ladnier Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	960 (+3%)	4mo	$135,000	$141	73
2000 Carol Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	936 (0%)	7mo	$87,500	$93	72
2612 Fraternity Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	927 (-1%)	22mo	$107,500	$116	64
2137 Woodbury Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	914 (-2%)	15mo	$119,000	$130	62
2413 Northbrook Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,023 (+9%)	4mo	$152,500	$149	60
2313 Ladnier Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,025 (+10%)	10mo	$134,900	$132	57
2306 Calle De Desoto St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,032 (+10%)	8mo	$95,000	$92	56
3013 W Park Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	962 (+3%)	16mo	$159,000	$165	55
1905 C W Webb Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	856 (-8%)	9mo	$109,000	$127	54
2001 S Haven Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	962 (+3%)	10mo	$135,000	$140	52
3108 Bemis Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,053 (+12%)	12mo	$135,000	$128	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,909
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,216
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39553

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $355/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $174,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $174,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $174,900 Pending 12 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $174,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
10. 2026-05-05
    status Active
11. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-25
    listed $174,900 Active
13. 2025-11-21
    soldstatus
14. 2025-11-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,026/yr (+$86/mo · 288.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$355
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47
• After-tax cash flow: $2,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pascagoula-Gautier School District
• NCES district ID: 2803480
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,392
• Composite: 32.86/100
• National rank: #5613
• State rank: #41 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gautier

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #11250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gautier, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 17,225
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 17,225
• Household income: $57,460
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.77%
• Current HPI: 209.1746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-05-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-25 Listed $174,900 MLSU
• 2025-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $355 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.