248 River Rd · Lakeland, GA 31635

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2023 3.96 ac lot $151/sqft · 5% below area Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on nearly 4 acres of peaceful country land, this charming property offers space, privacy, and the quiet lifestyle you've been looking for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home sits surrounded by open land, mature trees, and plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living.

Key facts

• Open land
• Nearly 4 acres
• Outdoor living

Tags

• NEARLY 4 ACRES
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY LAND
• OPEN LAND
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#379 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lanier County (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 174 in GA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Lanier County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $169k implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.95%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,527
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: 0.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
248 River Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,053 (-6%)	1mo	$169,900	$161	90
41 Browning Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-6%)	10mo	$130,500	$124	69
288 N Hwy 221	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-5%)	12mo	$159,900	$150	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $43,341
• Equity at exit: $89,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $125,236
• Equity at exit: $150,494

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31635

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,790/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $204	+0% $156	+5% $108	+10% $60
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $93	+0% $156	+5% $219	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $199	base $156	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Nestled on nearly 4 acres of peaceful country land, this charming property offers space, privacy, and the quiet lifestyle you've been looking for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home sits surrounded by open land, mature trees, and plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $169,000 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Nestled on nearly 4 acres of peaceful country land, this charming property offers space, privacy, and the quiet lifestyle you've been looking for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home sits surrounded by open land, mature trees, and plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living.

3. 2026-03-04
   price $175,000 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Nestled on nearly 4 acres of peaceful country land, this charming property offers space, privacy, and the quiet lifestyle you've been looking for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home sits surrounded by open land, mature trees, and plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living.

4. 2026-02-24
   price $199,900 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Nestled on nearly 4 acres of peaceful country land, this charming property offers space, privacy, and the quiet lifestyle you've been looking for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home sits surrounded by open land, mature trees, and plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living.

5. 2026-02-10
   listed $219,000 Active 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Nestled on nearly 4 acres of peaceful country land, this charming property offers space, privacy, and the quiet lifestyle you've been looking for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home sits surrounded by open land, mature trees, and plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living.

6. 2023-05-22
   soldstatus $37,000 Closed 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   ALMOST 4 ACRES IN LANIER COUNTY READY FOR YOUR BUILDING PLANS!!! Great location with being less than 10mins from Lakeland and less than 5mins from the boat launch for the Alapaha River. This piece of property has a survey completed, passing perc test, and partially cleared all saving YOU money! Trails to the front and back have been cleared for easy access to entire property and to view different locations for your new build or mobile home. Land is made up of pines and oaks. Call today for more information!

7. 2023-04-24
   status Pending 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   ALMOST 4 ACRES IN LANIER COUNTY READY FOR YOUR BUILDING PLANS!!! Great location with being less than 10mins from Lakeland and less than 5mins from the boat launch for the Alapaha River. This piece of property has a survey completed, passing perc test, and partially cleared all saving YOU money! Trails to the front and back have been cleared for easy access to entire property and to view different locations for your new build or mobile home. Land is made up of pines and oaks. Call today for more information!

8. 2022-08-04
   listed $45,000 Active 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   ALMOST 4 ACRES IN LANIER COUNTY READY FOR YOUR BUILDING PLANS!!! Great location with being less than 10mins from Lakeland and less than 5mins from the boat launch for the Alapaha River. This piece of property has a survey completed, passing perc test, and partially cleared all saving YOU money! Trails to the front and back have been cleared for easy access to entire property and to view different locations for your new build or mobile home. Land is made up of pines and oaks. Call today for more information!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,790
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$221
• After-tax cash flow: $2,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lanier County
• NCES district ID: 1303240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,019
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #6476
• State rank: #67 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #19151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,978

Population outlook (Lanier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,743 people
• By 2030: 10,892 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 10,975 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 10,764 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 9,418 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 7,419 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lanier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.6% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Current HPI: 201.1664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+275.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $169,000 SGMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $175,000 SGMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $199,900 SGMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $219,000 SGMLS
• 2023-05-22 Sold (MLS) $37,000 SGMLS
• 2023-04-24 Pending — SGMLS
• 2022-08-04 Listed $45,000 SGMLS

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,790 · +347.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.