1250 Millar St · Ketchikan, AK 99901

$340,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1930 3,055 sqft lot Est $363k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1250 Millar Street is a charming single family residence with plenty of appeal. This property is on the uphill side of Millar Street which is easily walkable to downtown Ketchikan and a short drive to shopping and groceries. Standing tall amongst three stories, this 1930 home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom amongst 1,286 SF and a rare 950 SF full basement with parking for 1 car which could be used for projects and additional storage. There are readily available views of the Tongass Narrows, Pennock & Gravina Island from any of the front windows or front entry. The rear of the home has a covered porch with access to private lawn & garden space. This has plenty of potential for a star

Key facts

• Private lawn
• Full basement
• Garden space

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE LAWN
• GARDEN SPACE
• VIEWS OF TONGASS NARROWS
• VIEWS OF PENNOCK ISLAND
• VIEWS OF GRAVINA ISLAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 3 stories
• Construction: Shingle siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range and oven; Refrigerator
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range and oven; Refrigerator; Dryer; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Washer and Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($258/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Ketchikan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AK, #3,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $260,000 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,652
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Pittinger Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+10%)	20mo	$398,000	$282	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-53,880
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-45,786
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99901

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,294/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,573

Max offer price $340,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 Water St Ketchikan, AK	2.0	2.0	1180	$2,600	$2.20	43d	1	0.09mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $340,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 691-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $340,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,670 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,376/yr (+$115/mo · 106.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$1,294
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$5,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $1,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Ketchikan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3743

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ketchikan, AK
• Population (ZIP): 13,875

Population outlook (Ketchikan Gateway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,287 people
• By 2030: 14,487 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 14,750 · +3.2%
• By 2050: 14,908 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 15,319 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 15,204 · +6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Native American 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 7% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ketchikan Gateway

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 190.039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+126.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $340,000 SEABR
• 1999-03-04 Listed $150,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,294 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.