7978 Safebuy St · Houston, TX 77028

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2024 3,998 sqft lot $230/sqft · 24% above area Est $246k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers a great opportunity for buyers seeking space and potential in a convenient location. The lot provides ample room for future improvements or customization and includes a driveway and a small backyard, making it ideal for a variety of uses. Surrounded by a mix of residential and/or natural surroundings, the property allows for flexibility in development or personal use. Interior features include a master bedroom with a walk-in shower, a dedicated pantry room, and a separate laundry room for added convenience. Buyers are encouraged to independently verify all details, zoning, and intended use.

Key facts

• 3,998 sq ft lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 149 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,905/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.34%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,577
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -18.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7957 Ritz St	0.04mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	2mo	$120,000	$139	96
7957 Safebuy St	0.05mi	3/1.0	816 (-6%)	8mo	$65,000	$80	82
7962 Safebuy St	0.03mi	3/1.0	884 (+2%)	18mo	$198,000	$224	80
7973 Birmingham St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	878 (+2%)	9mo	$100,000	$114	79
7950 Safebuy St	0.05mi	3/1.5	864 (0%)	23mo	$159,900	$185	77
7966 Betty Boop St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	862 (-0%)	20mo	$147,800	$171	67
7944 Betty Boop St	0.22mi	3/2.0	982 (+14%)	13mo	$189,900	$193	52
8006 Crestview Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	920 (+6%)	16mo	$120,000	$130	44
7605 Delavan Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	806 (-7%)	10mo	$144,900	$180	42
8106 Flintridge Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	963 (+12%)	13mo	$143,000	$148	42
8014 Crestview Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (+6%)	17mo	$109,250	$119	38
8036 Filltop St	0.63mi	3/1.0	955 (+10%)	24mo	$199,000	$208	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $55,906
• Equity at exit: $115,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $147,077
• Equity at exit: $202,261

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,124/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7973 Ritz St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,250	$2.09	7d	1	0.03mi
7947 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	5d	1	0.24mi
8117 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,335	$1.22	21d	1	0.53mi
8119 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	43d	1	0.53mi
8309 Carolwood Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	938	$1,350	$1.44	43d	1	0.78mi
7600 E Houston Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,436	$1.41	13d	8	0.85mi
8015 Elbert St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,650	$1.62	7d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-04-25
    price $199,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers seeking space and potential in a convenient location. The lot provides ample room for future improvements or customization and includes a driveway and a small backyard, making it ideal for a variety of uses. Surrounded by a mix of residential and/or natural surroundings, the property allows for flexibility in development or personal use. Interior features include a master bedroom with a walk-in shower, a dedicated pantry room, and a separate laundry room for added convenience. Buyers are encouraged to independently verify all details, zoning, and intended use.

13. 2026-01-20
    listed $209,000 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    This property offers a great opportunity for buyers seeking space and potential in a convenient location. The lot provides ample room for future improvements or customization and includes a driveway and a small backyard, making it ideal for a variety of uses. Surrounded by a mix of residential and/or natural surroundings, the property allows for flexibility in development or personal use. Interior features include a master bedroom with a walk-in shower, a dedicated pantry room, and a separate laundry room for added convenience. Buyers are encouraged to independently verify all details, zoning, and intended use.

14. 2025-11-20
    soldstatus Closed 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Unlock the potential at 7978 Safebuy St—a generous 4,000 sq ft lot located in a rising residential corridor. This property offers a blank canvas for builders and developers aiming to deliver value-driven new construction. Whether you’re an investor, flipper, or custom-home builder, this parcel is your entry onto a promising residential canvas. Don’t miss the chance to shape the next chapter of 77028’s evolution.

15. 2025-08-30
    listed $68,300 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Unlock the potential at 7978 Safebuy St—a generous 4,000 sq ft lot located in a rising residential corridor. This property offers a blank canvas for builders and developers aiming to deliver value-driven new construction. Whether you’re an investor, flipper, or custom-home builder, this parcel is your entry onto a promising residential canvas. Don’t miss the chance to shape the next chapter of 77028’s evolution.

16. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus
17. 2025-01-29
    historical
18. 2025-01-29
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2025-01-21
    status Pending
20. 2025-01-17
    listed $65,000 Active
21. 1994-03-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,517/yr (+$126/mo · 71.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,124
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $2,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+206.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed $68,300 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 1994-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,124 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.