123 Picard Lp · Santee, SC
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +23.7/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +7.6/10.0
- 1% rule +7.4/10.0
- Appreciation +6.7/10.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
$178,990
123 Picard Lp · Santee, SC 29142
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,442 sqft · Townhouse
· 174 Days on market
Built 2026
1-car garage
$124/sqft
· 27% below area
Est $245k · 27% under
$175/mo HOA · 8% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to Chapel Branch by Ryan Homes, an easy first step to homeownership with modern homes and peace of mind built in. From the upper $100s.
Key facts
- $175 HOA
- Garage
- Built 2026
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
- Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.0% in Santee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 61/100 on livability (#202 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
- Zoned schools: Elloree Elementary (math 10%, 387 students, 100% FRL).
- Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 87 units permitted in Orangeburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,218/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 31% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
- Orangeburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer
$157,511
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.24% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.57%
- Cash-on-cash
- 8.14%
- DSCR
- 1.36
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $244,899
- List price
- $178,990
- Delta
- -26.91%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113 Picard Loop | 0.03mi | 3/2.5 | 1,442 (0%) | 12mo | $229,990 | $159 | 89 |
| 102 Tancaw Pl | 0.07mi | 3/2.5 | 1,442 (0%) | 10mo | $219,990 | $153 | 88 |
| 111 Picard Loop | 0.04mi | 3/2.5 | 1,442 (0%) | 14mo | $229,990 | $159 | 86 |
| 108 Tancaw Pl | 0.09mi | 3/2.5 | 1,442 (0%) | 15mo | $230,990 | $160 | 84 |
| 109 Picard Loop | 0.05mi | 3/2.5 | 1,442 (0%) | 17mo | $227,990 | $158 | 83 |
| 338 Picard Loop | 0.10mi | 3/2.5 | 1,634 (+13%) | 7mo | $246,000 | $151 | 67 |
| 294 Picard Loop | 0.15mi | 3/2.5 | 1,634 (+13%) | 20mo | $247,990 | $152 | 54 |
| 300 Picard Loop | 0.16mi | 3/2.5 | 1,634 (+13%) | 20mo | $247,990 | $152 | 54 |
| 290 Picard Loop | 0.15mi | 3/2.5 | 1,634 (+13%) | 21mo | $247,990 | $152 | 53 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 16.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.96×
- Total profit
- $47,882
- Equity at exit
- $85,296
10-year hold
- IRR
- 17.6%
- Equity multiple
- 3.69×
- Total profit
- $134,834
- Equity at exit
- $135,324
Cash invested: $50,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State South Carolina
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 21 active · 8 under contract
- Months of supply
- 63.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $269,000 ($178/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 326 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- -4.8% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 29142
- Home prices YoY
- 1.8%
- Active inventory
- 183
- Price-to-rent
- 6.7×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,218 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$939
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
- Insurance
- −$75
- HOA
- −$175
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$466
- Net cashflow
- $340
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,787
Max offer price
$178,990
Occupancy floor
80%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $464 | -5% $402 | +0% $340 | +5% $278 | +10% $216 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $165 | -5% $252 | +0% $340 | +5% $428 | +10% $515 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $430 | -0.5pp $386 | base $340 | +0.5pp $294 | +1.0pp $246 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $44,748
- Closing costs
- $5,370
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 12 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107 Oxbow Dr Santee, SC | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1658 | $2,300 | $1.39 | 0d | 1 | 0.11mi |
| 709 Striped Bass Ct Santee, SC | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1482 | $2,500 | $1.69 | 78d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 132 Congaree CT Santee, SC | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1482 | $2,195 | $1.48 | 0d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 708 Striped Bass Ct Santee, SC | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1782 | $2,500 | $1.40 | 0d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 764 Striped Bass Ct Santee, SC | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1183 | $2,000 | $1.69 | 0d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 764 Striped Bass Ct Santee, SC | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1183 | $2,000 | $1.69 | 62d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 764 Striped Bass Ct Santee, SC | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1183 | $2,000 | $1.69 | 119d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 208 Trillium Ct Santee, SC | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1500 | $2,100 | $1.40 | 119d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 127 Ballard Ln Santee, SC | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $2,495 | $1.92 | 5d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 195 Ballard Ln Santee, SC | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1298 | $1,800 | $1.39 | 0d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 716 Sinker LN Santee, SC | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1180 | $1,500 | $1.27 | 71d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 716 Sinker LN Santee, SC | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1180 | $1,500 | $1.27 | 84d | 1 | 1.06mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Monthly association fee of $175Lawn maintenance includedPark accessStorage availableTrash service included
Exterior
- Parking
- 1-car garage with garage door openerAdditional 'Other' parking
- Utilities
- Public sewerDominion Energy serviceTri-County Electric service
- Home design
- Residential townhouse (single family attached)Two levelsFee simple ownershipLocated in Chapel Branch Villas subdivision
- Construction
- Townhouse structure
- Exterior features
- Asphalt roofWooded settingAdjacent to U.S. Forestry ServiceLot under 0.5 acre
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedroomsPrimary bedroom with walk-in closet
- Flooring
- CarpetLuxury vinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2.5 bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central airElectric heatingHeat pump
- Interior features
- Kitchen islandWalk-in closetsEat-in kitchenFamily roomLiving/dining comboOffice
- Laundry & utility
- Washer and dryer includedDedicated laundry room
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $178,990 Active 174 DOM
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2026-09-20days on market $178,990 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $178,990 Active 169 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $178,990 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $178,990 Active 167 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $178,990 Active 166 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $178,990 Active 165 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $178,990 Active 164 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $178,990 Active 163 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $178,990 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $178,990 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $178,990 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $178,990 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $178,990 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $178,990 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $178,990 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $178,990 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $178,990 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-08-25price $178,990 Active 146 DOM
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2026-08-25days on market $176,990 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $176,990 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $176,990 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $176,990 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $176,990 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $176,990 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $176,990 Active 140 DOM
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2026-08-18days on market $176,990 Active 139 DOM
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2026-08-17days on market $176,990 Active 138 DOM
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2026-08-16days on market $176,990 Active 137 DOM
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2026-08-15days on market $176,990 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $176,990 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $176,990 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $176,990 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $176,990 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $176,990 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $176,990 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $176,990 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $176,990 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $176,990 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $176,990 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $176,990 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $176,990 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $176,990 Active 121 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $176,990 Active 119 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $176,990 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $176,990 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $176,990 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $176,990 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $176,990 Active 112 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $176,990 Active 111 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $26,612
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,026
- − Property taxes
- −$2,685
- − Insurance
- −$895
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,129
- − Management
- −$2,129
- − HOA
- −$2,100
- − Depreciation
- −$5,207
- Taxable income
- $1,441
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$346
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,734/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $7,210–$21,630 screening
This townhouse is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑
- Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's resale value. ↑
- Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Elloree Elementary
High
Lake Marion Technology Center
Schools (NCES district)
No district data.
C
Composite livability gradescore 61/100
Livability — Santee
- Score
- 61/100
- State rank
- #202
- US rank
- #17354
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime F
Employment F
Housing C+
Health & safety A+
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Santee, SC
- County
- Orangeburg · 82,698 people
- Population (ZIP)
- 4,658
- Household income
- $50,673
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 31% of renters
Population outlook (Orangeburg County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 82,698 people
- By 2030
- 78,615 · -4.9%
- By 2040
- 69,308 · -16.2%
- By 2050
- 60,629 · -26.7%
- By 2075
- 42,678 · -48.4%
- By 2100
- 28,136 · -66.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority Black (64%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 64% White 31% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 1%
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Orangeburg
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+24.6) · D 61.8% · R 37.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 38.1pp · 2024: 24.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+33.2 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+43.5 2008: D+38.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 3.47%
- Current HPI
- 193.5623
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.51%
- F500 in state
- 2
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Packaging | 1 | $7B |
|
||
Price history
+1.1% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-01 Price Changed $176,990 Charleston Trident MLS
- 2026-04-01 Listed $174,990 Charleston Trident MLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…