123 Picard Lp · Santee, SC 29142

$176,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,442 sqft · Townhouse · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $225k · 21% under $175/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Chapel Branch by Ryan Homes, an easy first step to homeownership with modern homes and peace of mind built in. From the upper $100s.

Key facts

• $175 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $175; Lawn maintenance included; Park access; Storage available; Trash service included

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage with garage door opener; Additional 'Other' parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Dominion Energy service; Tri-County Electric service
• Home design: Residential townhouse (single family attached); Two levels; Fee simple ownership; Located in Chapel Branch Villas subdivision
• Construction: Townhouse structure
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Wooded setting; Adjacent to U.S. Forestry Service; Lot under 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2.5 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Eat-in kitchen; Family room; Living/dining combo; Office
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $177k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $177k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.4% in Santee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#202 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Elloree Elementary (math 10%, 387 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 87 units permitted in Orangeburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Orangeburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $166,370 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Picard Loop	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	9mo	$229,990	$159	91
102 Tancaw Pl	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	7mo	$219,990	$153	91
111 Picard Loop	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	11mo	$229,990	$159	89
108 Tancaw Pl	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	12mo	$230,990	$160	86
109 Picard Loop	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	14mo	$227,990	$158	86
338 Picard Loop	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+13%)	4mo	$246,000	$151	70
294 Picard Loop	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+13%)	17mo	$247,990	$152	57
300 Picard Loop	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+13%)	17mo	$247,990	$152	56
290 Picard Loop	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+13%)	18mo	$247,990	$152	56
340 Picard Loop	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+13%)	22mo	$249,990	$153	54
306 Picard Loop	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+13%)	21mo	$264,990	$162	53
304 Picard Loop	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+13%)	22mo	$254,990	$156	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $49,247
• Equity at exit: $84,343

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $137,433
• Equity at exit: $133,812

Cash invested: $49,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29142

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$221 /mo · $2,655/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770

Max offer price $176,990

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,248
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
764 Striped Bass Ct Santee, SC	3.0	2.0	1183	$2,000	$1.69	23d	1	0.34mi
208 Trillium Ct Santee, SC	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	23d	1	0.85mi
127 Ballard Ln Santee, SC	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,999	$2.31	23d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $176,990 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $176,990 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $176,990 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $176,990 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $176,990 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $176,990 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $176,990 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $176,990 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $176,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $176,990 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $176,990 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $176,990 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $176,990 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    price $176,990 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,990 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,990 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,990 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-04-01
    listed $174,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,914
• − Property taxes: −$2,655
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable income: $1,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $3,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's resale value.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's resale value. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Santee

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #17354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santee, SC
• Population (ZIP): 4,658

Population outlook (Orangeburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,698 people
• By 2030: 78,615 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 69,308 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 60,629 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 42,678 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 28,136 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 31% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orangeburg

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 61.8% · R 37.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 38.1pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+33.2 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+43.5 2008: D+38.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 193.5623
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $174,990 Charleston Trident MLS