20095 Shadow Island Dr · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · Manufactured public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1990 3,500 sqft lot Est $210k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Manufactured home on permanent foundation with Land Lease. Buyer must obtain reapproval from park community before submitting offer. 2 Applications are required: 1 for Buyer(s), 1 for adults over 18 not on land lease or title. Welcome to this beautifully upgraded home located in the heart of Canyon Country. This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers an open and inviting floor plan, modern upgrades, and incredible mountain and valley views—making it the perfect retreat for families and entertainers alike. Step inside to discover a bright and airy living space, featuring high ceilings, recessed lighting, and elegant flooring throughout. The gourmet kitchen is a chef’s dr

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Cozy fireplace
• Granite countertops

Tags

• MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY VIEWS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• COZY FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Common interest: Planned development; No common walls (detached); Living area source: Assessor's data; Subdivision: Canyon View Estates (CYVE)
• Financial info: Land lease: $1,700.09 (land lease property)
• HOA & community: Part of an association (Canyon View Estates); Association amenities: pool, spa, clubhouse, tennis, playground, outdoor cooking area, onsite property management; Pets permitted (pet rules apply); Association has controlled access and guard; Community features: curbs, street lighting, sidewalks, park; Approximately 150 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (front entry); 2 garage/parking spaces
• Security: Controlled access; Guarded community (guard)
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electricity available; Cable available; Telephone available (in street)
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story; Located in a planned development
• Construction: Certified 433A foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; In-ground community spa; In-ground community pool; Storage building; Front yard; Back yard; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Quartz counters; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main floor); Main floor bedrooms: 2
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Separate tub and walk-in shower in primary bath; Shower-in-tub option; Bathtub; Granite counters in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: High ceilings (9+ feet); Ceiling fan(s); Recessed lighting; Sliding glass door(s); Mirrored closet doors; Double pane windows; Plantation shutters; Main-level floor plan (all bedrooms down)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.61%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #247	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-5%)	8mo	$155,000	$124	67
20073 Edgewater Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+13%)	5mo	$322,000	$217	64
20042 Canyon View Dr #74	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+13%)	4mo	$275,000	$186	63
20401 Soledad Cyn #355	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-5%)	1mo	$224,000	$179	61
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #342	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+2%)	8mo	$210,000	$156	59
20401 Soledad Cyn	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+10%)	4mo	$230,000	$160	54
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #690	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+2%)	15mo	$240,400	$179	53
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #126	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (-7%)	8mo	$130,000	$106	52
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd Spc 543	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+10%)	4mo	$230,000	$160	50
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #114	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-10%)	4mo	$184,000	$156	50
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #451	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-10%)	7mo	$157,000	$134	47
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #203	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+7%)	19mo	$235,000	$167	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-9,175
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $25,723
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,026/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,359

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26956 Flo Ln #338 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,875	$2.70	1d	1	0.60mi
26955 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1007	$2,850	$2.83	1d	1	0.65mi
26941 Rainbow Glen Dr #751 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,900	$3.20	1d	1	0.65mi
26921 Flo Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,950	$2.66	1d	1	0.67mi
26901 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1001	$2,950	$2.95	1d	1	0.71mi
26842 Claudette St #204 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	964	$2,650	$2.75	1d	1	0.73mi
20345 Rue Crevier Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,700	$2.98	1d	1	0.74mi
28131 Florence Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$4,300	$2.84	1d	1	0.77mi
26741 Isabella Pkwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,989	$3.52	1d	3	0.85mi
26844 Albion Way Unit 1 Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1817	$3,995	$2.20	12d	1	0.97mi
27301 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	17d	2	1.07mi
19028 Drycliff St Unit C Canyon Country, CA	3.0	1.5	982	$3,600	$3.67	2d	1	1.14mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$2,925	$2.78	24d	2	1.16mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,700	$2.70	1d	1	1.16mi
28427 Santa Rosa Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	1d	1	1.20mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	7d	1	1.21mi
28371 Mirabelle Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,400	$1.99	6d	1	1.22mi
28366 Casselman Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,650	$2.13	1d	1	1.25mi
28136 Bakerton Ave Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	7d	1	1.29mi
19341 Opal Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1850	$3,850	$2.08	18d	1	1.30mi
27077 Hidaway Ave Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-01-05
    listed $270,000 Active
16. 2026-01-05
    historical
17. 2025-12-03
    price $270,000
18. 2025-09-04
    listed $274,000 Active
19. 2025-09-04
    historical
20. 2025-08-26
    historical
21. 2025-07-08
    price $275,000
22. 2025-06-04
    status Active
23. 2025-05-14
    status Pending Sale
24. 2025-03-18
    price $285,000
25. 2025-02-14
    listed $279,900 Active
26. 2023-12-29
    soldstatus $270,000 Closed Sale
27. 2023-12-22
    status Pending Sale
28. 2023-11-21
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2023-10-30
    status Active
30. 2023-10-20
    historical Active Under Contract
31. 2023-09-12
    price $265,000
32. 2023-08-18
    price $275,000
33. 2023-07-21
    status Active
34. 2023-07-11
    historical
35. 2023-06-17
    price $285,000
36. 2023-05-19
    listed $299,000 Active
37. 2006-03-22
    soldstatus $200,000
38. 2006-03-01
    listed $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,026 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,026
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,001
• − Management: −$3,001
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable income: $3,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$757
• After-tax cash flow: $6,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+31.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $274,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-04 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-05-14 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $279,900 CRMLS
• 2023-12-29 Sold (MLS) $270,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-11-21 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-10-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-10-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-09-12 Price Changed $265,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-18 Price Changed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-21 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-07-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-06-17 Price Changed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2023-05-19 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2006-03-22 Sold (MLS) $200,000 CRMLS
• 2006-03-01 Listed $205,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,026 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.