NAT16763A Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Manufactured · 390 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully crafted value oriented extra large single section family home includes the preferred floor plan layout with privately located master bedroom and ensuite boasting deck soaking tub, separate stall shower and dual sink basins; spacious living room opening to large beautiful well equipped kitchen and adjacent roomy dining area and utility/laundry storage room; large secondary bedrooms and well located guest bath; ample closet and storage capacity throughout this skillfully designed home.

Key facts

• Ensuite
• Dual sink basins
• Master bedroom

Tags

• MASTER BEDROOM
• ENSUITE
• DECK SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE STALL SHOWER
• DUAL SINK BASINS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $79,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $141,848.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $981 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.72%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,848
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -43.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,856
• Equity at exit: $21,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $37,994
• Equity at exit: $12,264

Cash invested: $39,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$744
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$177 /mo · $2,128/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $141,848

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,462
• Closing costs: $4,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25982 Stillbrook Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,265	$1.16	12d	1	0.87mi
26471 Joy Village Dr Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	21d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 389 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 388 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 384 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 372 DOM
15. 2025-05-24
    listed $79,900 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Beautifully crafted value oriented extra large single section family home includes the preferred floor plan layout with privately located master bedroom and ensuite boasting deck soaking tub, separate stall shower and dual sink basins; spacious living room opening to large beautiful well equipped kitchen and adjacent roomy dining area and utility/laundry storage room; large secondary bedrooms and well located guest bath; ample closet and storage capacity throughout this skillfully designed home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,946
• − Property taxes: −$2,128
• − Insurance: −$709
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$4,126
• Taxable income: $2,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$713
• After-tax cash flow: $4,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Installing smart home technology — Smart home features can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Installing smart home technology — Smart home features can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Splendora, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Listed $79,900 Zillow