NAT16763A Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Manufactured · 441 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.6

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully crafted value oriented extra large single section family home includes the preferred floor plan layout with privately located master bedroom and ensuite boasting deck soaking tub, separate stall shower and dual sink basins; spacious living room opening to large beautiful well equipped kitchen and adjacent roomy dining area and utility/laundry storage room; large secondary bedrooms and well located guest bath; ample closet and storage capacity throughout this skillfully designed home.

Key facts

• Ensuite
• Dual sink basins
• Master bedroom

Tags

• MASTER BEDROOM
• ENSUITE
• DECK SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE STALL SHOWER
• DUAL SINK BASINS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $79,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $143,430.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($18/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.1% in Splendora — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 655 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $991 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 441 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 441 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,430
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -44.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25732 Chestnut Ln	1.11mi	3/1.5	1,146 (-4%)	4mo	$189,500	$165	54
25772 Hickory Ln	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	8mo	$234,900	$203	53
25760 Hickory Ln	1.42mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	8mo	$239,900	$208	53
16124 Brettwood Ln	0.87mi	3/2.0	1,109 (-7%)	2mo	$179,990	$162	52
25388 White Oak Ln	1.03mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+7%)	2mo	$150,000	$118	52
25774 John Wayne Rd	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+16%)	1mo	$241,990	$176	39
25766 John Wayne Rd	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+16%)	2mo	$234,900	$170	38
25762 John Wayne Rd	1.36mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+19%)	4mo	$242,990	$172	36
25665 Roy Rogers Rd	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+18%)	4mo	$225,990	$160	36
25721 John Wayne Rd	1.28mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+18%)	6mo	$221,990	$158	35
15619 Jackie Robinson Rd	0.96mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+22%)	8mo	$222,000	$153	33
25669 Roy Rogers Rd	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+25%)	9mo	$242,990	$164	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-23,129
• Equity at exit: $21,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-19,943
• Equity at exit: $12,401

Cash invested: $40,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active
• Median asking: $99,900 ($69/sqft)
• Median days on market: 739 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +73.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$752
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$179 /mo · $2,151/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,255

Max offer price $143,430

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $51	+0% $1	+5% $-48	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-48	+0% $1	+5% $51	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $38	base $1	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,857
• Closing costs: $4,303
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25982 Stillbrook Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,175	$1.08	38d	1	0.87mi
25721 John Wayne Rd Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,800	$1.28	36d	1	1.29mi
26471 Joy Village Dr Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	71d	1	1.32mi
26471 Joy Village Dr Unit A Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,295	$1.28	43d	1	1.32mi
24898 Lakewood Dr Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	13d	1	1.37mi
24898 Lakewood Dr Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	3d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 441 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $79,900 Active 439 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $79,900 Active 438 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $79,900 Active 437 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 436 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $79,900 Active 433 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $79,900 Active 432 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $79,900 Active 431 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $79,900 Active 430 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $79,900 Active 426 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 425 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 424 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 423 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $79,900 Active 422 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 420 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 419 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 418 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 417 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 416 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 415 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 414 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 413 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 412 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 411 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 409 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $79,900 Active 408 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $79,900 Active 407 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 406 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 405 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 404 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 403 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 402 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $79,900 Active 401 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 400 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $79,900 Active 399 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 398 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $79,900 Active 396 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 393 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 390 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $79,900 Active 389 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 388 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 387 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 385 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 384 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 381 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 380 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 379 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 376 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 375 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,034
• − Property taxes: −$2,151
• − Insurance: −$717
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,206
• − Management: −$1,206
• − Depreciation: −$4,172
• Taxable loss: −$2,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$578
• After-tax cash flow: $596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,955–$17,865 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Installing smart home technology — Smart home features can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Splendora, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Listed $79,900 Zillow