1636 N Camino Altar · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1997 1.21 ac lot Est $232k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must See!! Nicely Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath, has new laminate flooring, new carpets, new A/C, new appliances and more! Come see it before its gone!

Key facts

• Rv parking
• White cabinets
• Newer roof

Tags

• RV PARKING
• LARGE SHED
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETS
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water provided by a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (Champion Infinity); Single-story; Main residence faces west
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Shed(s); Wire fencing; East/West exposure; Dirt road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave; Lazy Susan
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on one level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Double pane windows; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($323/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 236 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $205k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,172 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,320
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1636 N Camino Altar	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	0mo	$240,000	$227	100
1491 N San Joaquin Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	7mo	$215,000	$204	80
11959 W Calle Pima	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	23mo	$255,000	$255	69
2200 N Camino Del Gato	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+2%)	3mo	$230,000	$213	64
12309 W Mile Wide Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	7mo	$232,500	$220	63
12220 W Calle Seneca	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+14%)	9mo	$208,000	$173	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-41,924
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,831
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Contingent
3. 2026-04-14
   price $240,000
4. 2026-03-30
   price $245,000
5. 2026-03-20
   listed $255,000 Active
6. 2022-02-25
   soldstatus $205,000
7. 2022-02-24
   soldstatus $205,000 Closed 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   Must See!! Nicely Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath, has new laminate flooring, new carpets, new A/C, new appliances and more! Come see it before its gone!

8. 2022-02-17
   status Pending 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   Must See!! Nicely Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath, has new laminate flooring, new carpets, new A/C, new appliances and more! Come see it before its gone!

9. 2022-01-10
   historical Active Contingent 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   Must See!! Nicely Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath, has new laminate flooring, new carpets, new A/C, new appliances and more! Come see it before its gone!

10. 2021-12-29
    price $205,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Must See!! Nicely Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath, has new laminate flooring, new carpets, new A/C, new appliances and more! Come see it before its gone!

11. 2021-12-08
    listed $220,000 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Must See!! Nicely Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath, has new laminate flooring, new carpets, new A/C, new appliances and more! Come see it before its gone!

12. 2019-09-20
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 41.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$930
• After-tax cash flow: $1,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+336.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $240,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $245,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-20 Listed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-24 Sold (MLS) $205,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-17 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-10 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-12-29 Price Changed $205,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-12-08 Listed $220,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,118 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.