Columbia Plan · Plant City, FL 33565

$353,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 509 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home divides space for optimal tranquility. The first floor showcases an open design that encompasses the dining room, kitchen and living room for simplified family living and entertaining. Nearby, the owner's suite is separate from the upstairs bedrooms and features a private bathroom. The second level hosts four additional bedrooms and a versatile loft.

Key facts

• Private bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $353,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $362,486.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $354k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Plant City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,928/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 509 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $292,807 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 509 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,486
• List price: $353,990
• Delta: -2.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3937 Northern Key Dr	0.03mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	6mo	$364,490	$153	94
2781 Bryce Ravine Ave	0.31mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	10mo	$342,440	$143	77
2728 Bryce Ravine Ave	0.20mi	5/2.5	2,215 (-7%)	13mo	$337,440	$152	67
2251 Blue Orchid Ave	0.33mi	5/2.5	2,215 (-7%)	7mo	$349,500	$158	66
4030 Northern Key Dr	0.21mi	5/2.5	2,215 (-7%)	15mo	$369,290	$167	66
3818 N Maryland Ave	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,486 (+4%)	3mo	$445,000	$179	63
4027 Northern Key Dr	0.20mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	17mo	$409,990	$159	56
1708 Tropical Oasis	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,584 (+8%)	12mo	$352,945	$137	55
2338 Allium Roseum Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,278 (-5%)	8mo	$379,190	$166	54
2352 Allium Roseum Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,576 (+8%)	6mo	$403,090	$156	52
3517 Great Park Ct	0.52mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,614 (+9%)	2mo	$391,000	$150	51
1516 Tropical Oasis Ave	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,738 (+15%)	1mo	$340,000	$124	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-70,915
• Equity at exit: $54,048

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-77,309
• Equity at exit: $31,341

Cash invested: $101,496 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 44.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $367,995 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,928 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,901
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$453 /mo · $5,437/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,171

Max offer price $334,720

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-67	+0% $-192	+5% $-317	+10% $-442
Rent	-10% $-423	-5% $-308	+0% $-192	+5% $-76	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-100	base $-192	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,622
• Closing costs: $10,875
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3852 Northern Key Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,599	$1.34	120d	1	0.08mi
4053 Radiant Mountain Dr Plant City, FL	6.0	3.0	2614	$2,850	$1.09	2d	1	0.18mi
4060 Radiant Mountain Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	2.5	2415	$2,600	$1.08	10d	1	0.21mi
1629 Tropical Oasis Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,499	$1.29	51d	1	0.35mi
3726 Capital Reserve Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,475	$1.28	10d	1	0.39mi
3916 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,610	$1.17	121d	1	0.40mi
3916 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,610	$1.17	127d	1	0.40mi
3911 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,600	$1.17	165d	1	0.43mi
2318 Allium Roseum Ln Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,450	$1.35	15d	1	0.50mi
2318 Allium Roseum Ln Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,450	$1.35	10d	1	0.50mi
3919 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,400	$1.30	34d	1	0.53mi
3615 Natural Trace St Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,250	$1.16	75d	1	0.56mi
1206 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2435	$2,850	$1.17	10d	1	0.57mi
2505 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL	6.0	3.0	2614	$2,950	$1.13	110d	1	0.58mi
2310 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL	6.0	3.0	2624	$2,800	$1.07	1d	1	0.58mi
2310 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL	6.0	3.0	2624	$2,800	$1.07	46d	1	0.58mi
3884 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	3.5	2890	$3,000	$1.04	10d	1	0.68mi
3830 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,399	$1.30	10d	1	0.71mi
3830 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,600	$1.41	45d	1	0.71mi
3872 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,395	$1.11	115d	1	0.72mi
3872 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,395	$1.11	116d	1	0.72mi
3507 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2576	$2,600	$1.01	72d	1	0.74mi
3507 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2576	$2,600	$1.01	75d	1	0.74mi
3507 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$2,495	$0.98	124d	1	0.74mi
3747 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.5	2035	$2,695	$1.32	140d	1	0.74mi
1312 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,195	$1.13	55d	1	0.76mi
1458 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,345	$1.21	126d	1	0.83mi
1443 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	6.0	3.0	3362	$2,900	$0.86	45d	1	0.84mi
3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,150	$1.14	165d	1	1.21mi
3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,800	$0.94	165d	1	1.24mi
3410 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,650	$1.44	75d	1	1.31mi
3338 Shady Sunrise Loop Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,600	$1.10	10d	1	1.32mi
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	165d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $353,990 Active 509 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $353,990 Active 508 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $353,990 Active 507 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $353,990 Active 506 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $353,990 Active 505 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $353,990 Active 503 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $353,990 Active 502 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $353,990 Active 501 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $353,990 Active 500 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $353,990 Active 499 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $353,990 Active 498 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $353,990 Active 497 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $353,990 Active 496 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $353,990 Active 495 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $353,990 Active 494 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $353,990 Active 493 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $353,990 Active 492 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $353,990 Active 491 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $353,990 Active 490 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $353,990 Active 489 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $353,990 Active 488 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $353,990 Active 487 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $353,990 Active 486 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $353,990 Active 485 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $353,990 Active 484 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $353,990 Active 483 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $353,990 Active 482 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $353,990 Active 481 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $353,990 Active 480 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $353,990 Active 479 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $353,990 Active 478 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $353,990 Active 477 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $353,990 Active 476 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $353,990 Active 475 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $353,990 Active 473 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $353,990 Active 472 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $353,990 Active 471 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $353,990 Active 470 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $353,990 Active 469 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $353,990 Active 468 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $353,990 Active 467 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $353,990 Active 465 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $353,990 Active 464 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $353,990 Active 463 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $353,990 Active 462 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $353,990 Active 461 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $353,990 Active 460 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $353,990 Active 459 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $353,990 Active 458 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $353,990 Active 457 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,305
• − Property taxes: −$5,437
• − Insurance: −$1,812
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,811
• − Management: −$2,811
• − Depreciation: −$10,545
• Taxable loss: −$8,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Columbia Plan home in Plant City, FL is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Knights Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Marshall Middle Magnet School F FL #469/571 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Plant City High School F FL #312/667 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $353,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $346,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-17 Listed $419,990 Zillow