424 Butternut Ln SE · St. Michael, MN 55376

$400,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1988 0.48 ac lot $226/sqft · 27% above area Est $410k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All information is approximate and estimated. Agents & buyers to verify all. Agents please view agent remarks. Nice home, good area, very nice lot but home needs some fix up.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage (approximately 22.5 x 22.3, ~500 sq ft); Asphalt driveway; RV access/parking
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers (Xcel Energy)
• Home design: Residential property; Four-or-more level split; Porch and multiple exterior entries
• Construction: Block foundation; Block basement; Roof replaced/installed within the last 8 years; Built on a foundation area of approximately 1,152
• Exterior features: Composite decking; Decks (main and lower); Front porch; Patio; Wood exterior; Medium tree coverage; Paved city streets with public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total (3 bedrooms on one level); Upper-level bedrooms: two bedrooms (one 15 x 11, one 13 x 9) and one additional bedroom 11 x 9; Lower-level bedrooms: bedroom 4 (11 x 8) and bedroom 5 (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One full bath on the upper level and one full bath in the finished basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceiling; Natural woodwork; Kitchen center island; Breakfast bar; Informal dining area; Kitchen window; Hardwood and tile floors; Water softener (owned); Iron filter; Washer/Dryer hookup; Exercise room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-660 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in St. Michael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Michael-Albertville School District (rural): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #17 of 301 in MN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: St. Michael Elementary (math 84% / reading 71%, grade A, #21 of 857 statewide, top 3%, 588 students, 23% FRL); St. Michael-Albertville Middle East (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #24 of 258 statewide, top 9%, 892 students, 18% FRL); St. Michael-Albertville Senior High (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B, #27 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 2,240 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 356 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $212k; list at $400k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,887 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.08%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,000
• List price: $400,000
• Delta: -2.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-106,945
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-147,544
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55376

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,459 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,064/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,295

Max offer price $283,325

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-434	-5% $-547	+0% $-660	+5% $-774	+10% $-887
Rent	-10% $-855	-5% $-758	+0% $-660	+5% $-563	+10% $-466
Rate	-1.0pp $-459	-0.5pp $-559	base $-660	+0.5pp $-764	+1.0pp $-870

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4165 Orleans Dr NE Saint Michael, MN	2.0	1.5	1548	$1,800	$1.16	6d	1	0.59mi
2948 Kepler Ave NE Saint Michael, MN	3.0	2.5	2400	$2,800	$1.17	0d	1	0.92mi
11811 Frankfort Pkwy NE Saint Michael, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,500	$2.46	0d	13	0.92mi
433 1st St NW Saint Michael, MN	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,669	$1.46	5d	1	1.12mi
5055 Lander Ave NE Albertville, MN	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2067	$3,269	$1.58	0d	7	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-17
   historical Contingent - Inspection
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $400,000 Active
3. 2026-05-10
   historical
4. 2007-07-20
   soldstatus $212,000 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   All information is approximate and estimated. Agents & buyers to verify all. Agents please view agent remarks. Nice home, good area, very nice lot but home needs some fix up.

5. 2007-06-21
   historical 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   All information is approximate and estimated. Agents & buyers to verify all. Agents please view agent remarks. Nice home, good area, very nice lot but home needs some fix up.

6. 2007-05-17
   listed $219,900 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   All information is approximate and estimated. Agents & buyers to verify all. Agents please view agent remarks. Nice home, good area, very nice lot but home needs some fix up.

7. 2006-12-06
   historical
8. 2006-06-13
   listed $268,000
9. 2002-04-08
   soldstatus $205,000
10. 2002-03-29
    soldstatus $205,000
11. 2002-02-28
    historical
12. 2001-09-10
    listed $229,500
13. 2001-09-07
    soldstatus $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,064 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,272 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$4,064
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$15,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,677
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Michael-Albertville School District
• NCES district ID: 2733790
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $86,897
• Composite: 57.91/100
• National rank: #1042
• State rank: #17 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Michael

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Michael, MN
• County: Wright County · 79,164 people
• City population: 19,317
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,106
• Household income: $131,266
• Rent vs Own: 9.3% rent · 90.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 132.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.03%
• Current HPI: 229.5977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+105.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $400,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Coming Soon $400,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-20 Sold (MLS) $212,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-17 Listed $219,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-13 Listed $268,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-29 Sold (MLS) $205,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-02-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-10 Listed $229,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,064 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.