309 12th St · Ogden, KS 66517

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1945 7,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property or starter home! This 1 bed 1 bath home is a super cute starter and has lots of potential. Large lot and alley access , close to Fort Riley! Shed stays. Call Kelly Niemczyk 785-375-8300 or Kelsey Adams at 785-307-1882 today. Please give at least 24 hr notice if not longer.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 94 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown; Built area above grade: 630; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: No exterior amenities listed; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven, Range, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Oven, Range, Refrigerator; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#301 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Manhattan-Ogden (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 169 in KS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 132 units permitted in Riley County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riley County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $55k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.30%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $48,193
• Equity at exit: $49,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.29×
• Total profit: $127,612
• Equity at exit: $106,853

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66517

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $821/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $55,000
18. 2026-04-24
    status Active
19. 2026-04-04
    status Pending
20. 2026-02-23
    listed $60,000 Active
21. 2023-11-04
    historical
22. 2023-10-11
    listed
23. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Great investment property or starter home! This 1 bed 1 bath home is a super cute starter and has lots of potential. Large lot and alley access , close to Fort Riley! Shed stays. Call Kelly Niemczyk 785-375-8300 or Kelsey Adams at 785-307-1882 today. Please give at least 24 hr notice if not longer.

24. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Great investment property or starter home! This 1 bed 1 bath home is a super cute starter and has lots of potential. Large lot and alley access , close to Fort Riley! Shed stays. Call Kelly Niemczyk 785-375-8300 or Kelsey Adams at 785-307-1882 today. Please give at least 24 hr notice if not longer.

25. 2021-05-28
    listed $32,000 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Great investment property or starter home! This 1 bed 1 bath home is a super cute starter and has lots of potential. Large lot and alley access , close to Fort Riley! Shed stays. Call Kelly Niemczyk 785-375-8300 or Kelsey Adams at 785-307-1882 today. Please give at least 24 hr notice if not longer.

26. 2009-07-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$821
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $2,720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$653
• After-tax cash flow: $2,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manhattan-Ogden
• NCES district ID: 2009180
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,001
• Composite: 35.97/100
• National rank: #4795
• State rank: #26 of 169 in KS

Livability — Ogden

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #301
• US rank: #13306

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogden, KS
• County: Riley County · 62,662 people
• City population: 1,696
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• Population (ZIP): 1,696
• Household income: $68,421
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 54.0

Population outlook (Riley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,656 people
• By 2030: 89,075 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 99,100 · +18.5%
• By 2050: 109,146 · +30.5%
• By 2075: 134,178 · +60.4%
• By 2100: 153,653 · +83.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 10% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riley

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 47.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.8pp toward D · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+3.2 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.25%
• Current HPI: 254.8252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $55,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-04 Pending — FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-23 Listed $60,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-11-04 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-11 Listed for Rent — APPFOLIO
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) — FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-05-28 Listed $32,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2009-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $821 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.