Lincoln Park Plan · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Pine Ridge at Crestwood a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand new 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1198.08 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Whiting, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, vinyl floors, and energy efficient windows throughout. The kitchen boasts, beautiful island, recess lighting and energy efficient appliances perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with en-suite features like dual vanities, walk in shower, and linen closet. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or den. Outside you will enjoy low-maintenance landscaping, and walking distance from clubhouse, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Located in the desirable Pine Ridge at Crestwood, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities including fitness center, two clubhouses, bocce court and private transportation. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, major highways, and parks, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!Photos have been enhanced for marketing actual home may vary.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Linen closet
• Walk in shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK IN SHOWER
• LINEN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.9% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.38%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,601
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $45,553
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	12d	1	0.27mi
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	10d	1	0.28mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.44mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-03-28
    listed $129,000 Active 1475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1475 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Pine Ridge at Crestwood a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand new 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1198.08 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Whiting, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, vinyl floors, and energy efficient windows throughout. The kitchen boasts, beautiful island, recess lighting and energy efficient appliances perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with en-suite features like dual vanities, walk in shower, and linen closet. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or den. Outside you will enjoy low-maintenance landscaping, and walking distance from clubhouse, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Located in the desirable Pine Ridge at Crestwood, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities including fitness center, two clubhouses, bocce court and private transportation. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, major highways, and parks, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!Photos have been enhanced for marketing actual home may vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$893
• After-tax cash flow: $4,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2026 manufactured home in a 55+ community is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern open-concept floor plan, energy-efficient appliances, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replacing windows with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs
• Both Upgrading appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal for potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing windows with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal for potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $129,000 Zillow