3020 Lorena Ave · Baltimore, MD 21230

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Townhouse public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1958 $146/sqft · 10% above area Est $136k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Professional Photos will be uploaded ASAP .

Key facts

• Built 1958
• Listed 43 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.97%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,739
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 10.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3034 Lorena Ave	0.02mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	1mo	$153,000	$149	98
2839 Hinsdale Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	4mo	$152,000	$148	75
2707 Marbourne Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	1mo	$176,500	$172	75
2619 Northshire Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	2mo	$145,000	$142	73
2628 Northshire Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	4mo	$175,000	$171	72
2639 Northshire Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,024 (0%)	5mo	$120,000	$117	66
1710 Wickes Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,024 (0%)	3mo	$150,000	$146	62
2036 Deering Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,112 (+9%)	3mo	$129,900	$117	60
2809 Washington Blvd	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,110 (+8%)	3mo	$80,000	$72	58
2149 Harman Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+2%)	2mo	$115,000	$110	58
2521 S Paca St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+12%)	1mo	$30,000	$26	46
2439 Ridgely St	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,152 (+12%)	4mo	$222,000	$193	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,980
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,057
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21230

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,188/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3017 Janice Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,995	$1.95	23d	1	0.08mi
3004 Elizabeth Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,395	$1.36	4d	1	0.10mi
2600 W Patapsco Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	856	$1,309	$1.53	2d	24	0.19mi
2200 W Patapsco Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	890	$1,569	$1.76	43d	1	0.46mi
2056 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,495	$1.22	21d	1	0.73mi
1708 Hall Ave Unit 2 Halethorpe, MD	2.0	1.0	845	$1,625	$1.92	11d	1	0.78mi
1931 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	912	$1,349	$1.48	3d	1	0.81mi
2715 Hammonds Ferry Rd Halethorpe, MD	2.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	43d	1	1.06mi
902 Catawba Ct Halethorpe, MD	3.0	1.0	906	$1,495	$1.65	21d	1	1.17mi
3111 Bero Rd Halethorpe, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,750	$1.71	43d	1	1.18mi
4369 Hollins Ferry Rd Halethorpe, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,900	$1.65	43d	1	1.36mi
3269 Ryerson Cir Halethorpe, MD	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,700	$1.30	10d	1	1.41mi
3167 Ryerson Cir Halethorpe, MD	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,995	$1.79	4d	1	1.45mi
2745 Round Rd Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.0	756	$1,800	$2.38	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 43-char remark

   Show marketing remark (43 chars)

   Professional Photos will be uploaded ASAP .

2. 2026-04-05
   listed $149,900 Active 43-char remark

   Show marketing remark (43 chars)

   Professional Photos will be uploaded ASAP .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,188 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,188 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,188
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$672
• After-tax cash flow: $4,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 32,977
• Household income: $91,842
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1463.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -311.43%
• Current HPI: 284.338
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.00%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,188 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.