25537 Flora Bella Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$314,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,073 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 5,401 sqft lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $318k · at est. $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Dream Finders Home! The Llana floor plan delivers the perfect combination of space and functionality in a well-designed two-story home. With four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, this layout offers both privacy and comfort for the whole household. The main level features an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, the bedrooms provide a retreat-like setting, with a spacious primary suite and thoughtfully designed secondary bedrooms. A two-car garage completes the home, ensuring convenience and extra storage.

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-559 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,827 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.61%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,338
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -1.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25605 Flora Bella Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,162 (+4%)	2mo	$319,995	$148	86
13717 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+7%)	2mo	$363,950	$165	74
13821 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+7%)	2mo	$329,990	$149	72
25620 Wheat Seed Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,319 (+12%)	2mo	$324,990	$140	67
18316 Willow Sage Ln	0.37mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (+7%)	2mo	$265,000	$120	65
13601 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-11%)	1mo	$329,890	$179	65
25624 Wheat Seed Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,348 (+13%)	2mo	$319,995	$136	64
13437 Barn Chime St	0.61mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,989 (-4%)	2mo	$314,990	$158	56
13504 Muny Pkwy	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,160 (+4%)	1mo	$299,990	$139	56
13444 Barn Chime St	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,257 (+9%)	3mo	$314,990	$140	53
13708 Sierra Wind Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,833 (-12%)	1mo	$254,999	$139	52
18309 Rock Sage Cv	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,766 (-15%)	2mo	$279,900	$158	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $136,237
• Equity at exit: $283,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $429,922
• Equity at exit: $611,781

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,724/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,876

Max offer price $233,973

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.34mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	0.40mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	44d	1	0.42mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	44d	1	0.57mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	0.66mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	4d	1	0.72mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	0.73mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.73mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	0.75mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	2d	1	0.76mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	18d	1	0.78mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	3d	1	0.80mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	0.80mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	24d	1	0.82mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	44d	1	0.82mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.84mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.85mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	44d	1	0.87mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	3d	1	0.89mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	0.90mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	44d	1	0.90mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	24d	1	0.93mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	44d	1	0.94mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	20d	1	0.96mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	0.96mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	44d	1	0.96mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	2d	1	0.98mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.99mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	0.99mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	1.04mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	1.08mi
18501 Spotted Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	3.5	2891	$2,800	$0.97	3d	1	1.13mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	1.13mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	1.14mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	1.17mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	1.18mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	2d	1	1.19mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	1.20mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	1.22mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $314,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,090 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,090 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,090 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,090 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,090 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,090 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,090 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,090 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $344,090 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    New Dream Finders Home! The Llana floor plan delivers the perfect combination of space and functionality in a well-designed two-story home. With four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, this layout offers both privacy and comfort for the whole household. The main level features an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, the bedrooms provide a retreat-like setting, with a spacious primary suite and thoughtfully designed secondary bedrooms. A two-car garage completes the home, ensuring convenience and extra storage.

16. 2026-04-20
    listed $342,090 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    New Dream Finders Home! The Llana floor plan delivers the perfect combination of space and functionality in a well-designed two-story home. With four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, this layout offers both privacy and comfort for the whole household. The main level features an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, the bedrooms provide a retreat-like setting, with a spacious primary suite and thoughtfully designed secondary bedrooms. A two-car garage completes the home, ensuring convenience and extra storage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$4,724
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$12,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,975
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $344,090 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $342,090 Unlock MLS