2434 Martin Ave · Bellmore, NY 11710

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,665 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1943 9,735 sqft lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SHORT SALE, SUBJECT TO LENDERS APPROVAL, LAND ONLY- FIRE DAMAGE STRUCTURE. COMPLETE GUT AND RE-DO OR KNOCKDOWN. CASH ONLY. SOLD AS IS, LAND ONLY.

Key facts

• 9,735 sq ft lot
• Pool
• Built 1943

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 1.7% in Bellmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#46 in NY, #740 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• North Bellmore Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #151 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Martin Avenue Elementary School (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 311 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.54%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,239,225
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Airway Dr	0.09mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,451 (-8%)	6mo	$935,000	$381	64
2282 Sycamore Pl	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,700 (+1%)	5mo	$1,450,000	$537	63
1776 Roberta Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,846 (+7%)	10mo	$850,000	$299	61
2175 Helene Ave	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,606 (-2%)	10mo	$1,260,000	$483	58
201 Argyle Pl	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,600 (-2%)	5mo	$1,210,000	$465	57
2730 Court St	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,384 (-10%)	2mo	$850,000	$357	56
204 Margaret Blvd	0.44mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,364 (-11%)	3mo	$1,100,000	$465	53
2693 Martin Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,300 (-14%)	6mo	$856,000	$372	44
2171 Seneca Dr S	0.73mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,416 (-9%)	0mo	$1,220,000	$505	41
1271 Pea Pond Rd	0.70mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,420 (-9%)	8mo	$872,500	$361	40
70 Loines Ave	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,310 (-13%)	9mo	$1,250,000	$541	33
2147 Seneca Dr N	0.71mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,326 (-13%)	5mo	$1,115,000	$479	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $34,822
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $117,586
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11710

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$582 /mo · $6,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $1,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42 Hamilton Rd Unit Left North Merrick, NY	3.0	1.0	2100	$3,500	$1.67	1d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-02-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-15
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2023-05-10
   status Pending
4. 2023-05-10
   historical
5. 2023-04-25
   listed $199,900 Active
6. 2005-02-01
   soldstatus $605,000
7. 2005-02-01
   soldstatus $605,000
8. 1988-03-17
   soldstatus $285,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,985 · $582/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,985 · $582/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$6,985
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $10,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $10,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Bellmore Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3620940
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $108,596
• Composite: 59.15/100
• National rank: #950
• State rank: #151 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bellmore

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #740

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellmore, NY
• City population: 34,459
• Population (ZIP): 34,459

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -733.80%
• Current HPI: 294.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-29.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-25 Listed $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $605,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $605,000 Public Records
• 1988-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,985 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.