1004 Railroad Ave · Brainards, NJ 08865-9532

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1900 9,583 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath duplex nestled in desirable Harmony Township. Situated on a quiet dead-end street, this home offers a peaceful setting with limited traffic and beautiful natural surroundings. Featuring a spacious eat-in kitchen with direct access to the backyard, the home offers a functional layout and endless potential for customization and value-add improvements. Step outside to an exceptionally large yard, perfect for gardening, entertaining, outdoor recreation, or simply enjoying the open space. Enjoy scenic views of the Delaware River, creating a picturesque backdrop rarely found at this price point. The unique location combines privacy, nature, an

Key facts

• Large yard
• Eat-in kitchen
• Scenic views

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE YARD
• SCENIC VIEWS
• UNIQUE LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Four parking spaces; Detached 1-car garage; Crushed stone driveway
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: 1/2 duplex; White exterior
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Approximate year built
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot; Handicap modified

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven (electric); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the second level; One bedroom on the third level
• Flooring: Carpeting; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Single heating unit
• Interior features: Carbon monoxide detector; Separate dining area; Has full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#538 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harmony Township School District (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #457 of 612 in NJ (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harmony Township School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 187 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 630 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (315 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $99k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.06%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $28,248
• Equity at exit: $44,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $77,827
• Equity at exit: $68,602

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08865-9532

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $1,999/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $920

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $99,000 Under Contract 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-05-31
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,232 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,999
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$388
• After-tax cash flow: $2,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406810
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,526
• Composite: 39.72/100
• National rank: #8010
• State rank: #457 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Brainards

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #538
• US rank: #26307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brainards, NJ

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,498 people
• By 2030: 103,974 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 99,748 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 94,535 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 87,220 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 80,421 · -23.8%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+61.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,000 GSMLS
• 2000-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $61,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,999 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.