6532 Grogan Hill Rd · Sedalia, NC 27377

$345,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,175 sqft · Land · 137 Days on market

Built 2025 6,969 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

The Penwell, featured at The Reserve at Stoney Creek in Whitsett, NC, offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 2,164 sq. ft. , and a 2-car garage. The home greets you with a foyer leading to the flex room and powder room, opening to the spacious living room, kitchen, and breakfast area. The kitchen includes a walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and an island. The second floor features a loft, a primary suite with a walk-in closet, dual vanity, and walk-in shower. Two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a full bathroom. Contact us for a tour of this spacious home!

Key facts

• Foyer
• Powder room
• Flex room

Tags

• FOYER
• FLEX ROOM
• POWDER ROOM
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New home by D.R. Horton; Approximately 2,175 total building area; No pool; Lot number 138
• HOA & community: HOA with Greensboro association; Association dues approximately $46/month; Subdivision: The Reserve At Stoney Creek

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-facing garage; 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric water heater; Natural gas available
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; New construction (2025); Two levels; Living room fireplace with gas log
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Slab foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Zoned heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Pull-down attic access; Deadbolt locks; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-614 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#453 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sedalia Elementary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 550 students, 62% FRL); Eastern Guilford Middle (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #317 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 980 students, 75% FRL); Eastern Guilford High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,198 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,888 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.63%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.02% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-29,995
• Equity at exit: $118,061

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-1,329
• Equity at exit: $157,113

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27377

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,175/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,076

Max offer price $256,138

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-376	-5% $-495	+0% $-614	+5% $-733	+10% $-853
Rent	-10% $-796	-5% $-705	+0% $-614	+5% $-523	+10% $-432
Rate	-1.0pp $-440	-0.5pp $-526	base $-614	+0.5pp $-704	+1.0pp $-794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6700 Olivia Way Whitsett, NC	4.0	2.5	2231	$1,949	$0.87	25d	1	0.46mi
676 Affirmed Dr Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.5	1951	$1,955	$1.00	23d	1	0.63mi
746 Breeders Cup Dr Whitsett, NC	4.0	2.5	2776	$2,095	$0.75	25d	1	0.68mi
6850 Keeneland Dr Whitsett, NC	4.0	2.5	2196	$2,010	$0.92	23d	1	0.82mi
7161 Royal Ascot Dr Whitsett, NC	4.0	1.0–2.5	1658	$2,250	$1.36	16d	80	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   price $345,000
3. 2026-04-21
   status Active
4. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-15
   status Active
6. 2025-12-29
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-22
   status Active
8. 2025-10-24
   status Pending
9. 2025-10-21
   price $359,000
10. 2025-08-19
    listed $360,890 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$5,175
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$13,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,274
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701920
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4842
• State rank: #99 of 178 in NC

Livability — Sedalia

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #16681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guilford County · 487,190 people
• City population: 72
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,885
• Household income: $90,181
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Guilford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 584,596 people
• By 2030: 616,851 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 678,451 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 734,788 · +25.7%
• By 2075: 862,985 · +47.6%
• By 2100: 948,704 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 34% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guilford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.2% · R 38.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.02%
• Current HPI: 232.0638
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $345,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — Triad MLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — Triad MLS
• 2025-12-29 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2025-12-22 Relisted — Triad MLS
• 2025-10-24 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $359,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $360,890 Triad MLS