8401 Kavanagh Rd · Dundalk, MD 21222

$175,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1955 $171/sqft · 11% below area Est $196k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY * 3 Bedroom 1.5 Bath End of Group townhome with covered front porch in Dundalk * Hardwood floors under carpet * covered rear deck * fenced in corner lot * shed * Being sold AS IS * Whether you’re looking to renovate, rent, or resell, this home presents strong potential for the savvy investor or buyer with vision.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Shed
• Fenced in corner lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED REAR DECK
• FENCED IN CORNER LOT
• SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-site parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Above-grade finished area recorded by assessor
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the first lower level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Ceiling heating component; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Fully finished basement; Living area recorded by assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 6.2% in Dundalk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $151k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,653
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -10.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8339 Kavanagh Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,016 (-1%)	3mo	$240,000	$236	84
2023 Larkhall Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (0%)	14mo	$200,000	$195	79
2041 Jasmine Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (0%)	13mo	$162,000	$158	77
2010 Kelmore Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (0%)	16mo	$220,000	$215	76
8333 Kavanagh Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	896 (-12%)	2mo	$177,000	$198	64
7928 Kavanagh Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,024 (0%)	3mo	$256,000	$250	64
1922 Codd Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (0%)	10mo	$177,800	$174	64
8028 Kavanagh	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (0%)	6mo	$167,000	$163	63
1914 Inverton Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,144 (+12%)	18mo	$225,000	$197	53
1927 Codd Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+12%)	8mo	$190,000	$166	47
8155 Mid Haven Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (0%)	13mo	$268,000	$262	45
8142 Del Haven Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+12%)	3mo	$171,000	$149	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,232
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,119
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21222

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,311/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Larkhall Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	44d	1	0.10mi
2025 Kelmore Rd Unit 1 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	44d	1	0.13mi
1925 Jasmine Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,825	$1.78	11d	1	0.14mi
2032 Kelmore Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,700	$1.66	44d	1	0.16mi
8499 Lynch Rd Dundalk, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,202	$2.32	2d	32	0.25mi
11 Seabright Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	948	$1,874	$1.98	15d	1	0.35mi
1930 Frames Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,099	$1.82	5d	1	0.38mi
2020 Dineen Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1258	$1,850	$1.47	5d	1	0.50mi
7962 Kavanagh Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,947	$1.90	15d	1	0.61mi
7901 Stratman Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	890	$1,647	$1.85	2d	1	0.67mi
7930 Kavanagh Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,195	$2.14	44d	1	0.67mi
8146 Del Haven Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,700	$1.90	16d	1	0.75mi
7412 Saint Patricia Ct Dundalk, MD	4.0	2.0	1024	$2,800	$2.73	18d	1	0.79mi
4004 St Monica Dr Unit 1 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,895	$1.85	5d	1	0.89mi
4004 Saint Monica Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,925	$1.88	5d	1	0.89mi
7860 Saint Claire Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,200	$2.15	5d	1	0.93mi
7860 Saint Bridget Ln Dundalk, MD	4.0	1.0	1216	$2,300	$1.89	24d	1	0.95mi
7851 Saint Fabian Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,595	$1.56	44d	1	1.01mi
7863 Saint Fabian Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	5d	1	1.03mi
8252 Longpoint Rd Dundalk, MD	4.0	2.0	1216	$2,050	$1.69	16d	1	1.07mi
8252 Longpoint Rd Dundalk, MD	4.0	2.0	1216	$1,950	$1.60	3d	1	1.07mi
8220 Cornwall Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,775	$1.58	44d	1	1.12mi
1915 Merritt Blvd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,500	$2.07	44d	1	1.18mi
414 Westfield Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,300	$2.25	44d	1	1.20mi
3221 Wallford Dr Unit 3221 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	5d	1	1.26mi
3221 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	3d	1	1.26mi
7718 Meath Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	864	$2,200	$2.55	44d	1	1.27mi
3413 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1016	$2,000	$1.97	44d	1	1.28mi
3314 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,850	$1.47	15d	1	1.30mi
3427 North Point Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$2,250	$2.23	20d	1	1.34mi
3503 Sollers Point Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	776	$1,850	$2.38	12d	1	1.38mi
3317 Belsford Ct Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,950	$1.55	11d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 357-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $175,000 Active 357-char remark
3. 2026-01-02
   soldstatus $151,000
4. 2025-12-15
   soldstatus $151,000 Closed 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY * 3 Bedroom 1.5 Bath End of Group townhome with covered front porch in Dundalk * Hardwood floors under carpet * covered rear deck * fenced in corner lot * shed * Being sold AS IS * Whether you’re looking to renovate, rent, or resell, this home presents strong potential for the savvy investor or buyer with vision.

5. 2025-11-17
   status Pending 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY * 3 Bedroom 1.5 Bath End of Group townhome with covered front porch in Dundalk * Hardwood floors under carpet * covered rear deck * fenced in corner lot * shed * Being sold AS IS * Whether you’re looking to renovate, rent, or resell, this home presents strong potential for the savvy investor or buyer with vision.

6. 2025-11-13
   listed $148,000 Active 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY * 3 Bedroom 1.5 Bath End of Group townhome with covered front porch in Dundalk * Hardwood floors under carpet * covered rear deck * fenced in corner lot * shed * Being sold AS IS * Whether you’re looking to renovate, rent, or resell, this home presents strong potential for the savvy investor or buyer with vision.

7. 1975-04-10
   soldstatus $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,311 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,311 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,311
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,497
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $3,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dundalk

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundalk, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 59,407
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 59,407
• Household income: $64,141
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2566.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.44%
• Current HPI: 228.4218
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.09%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+677.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-15 Sold (MLS) $151,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $148,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1975-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,311 · +25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.