5916 Shovelers Ln #17 · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $119k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and beautifully updated! Located in Sierra Meadows Mobile Estates 55+ Active Community, this spacious 3 bed, 2 full-bath, double-wide home blends modern style with everyday comfort. Step inside to a bright, open floorplan showcasing an impressive list of upgrades, including recessed lighting, upgraded vinyl plank flooring, and stylish two-tone paint accented by sleek black hardware. The brand-new kitchen truly shines boasting an expansive island with storage and breakfast bar, upgraded cabinetry, quartz counters and updated appliances. The oversized primary suite features a large built-in closet system, and ensuite bathroom with modern double-sink vanity and stall shower with

Key facts

• Expansive island
• Low maintenance yard
• Community amenities

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE ISLAND
• BUILT-IN CLOSET SYSTEM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount noted as $960
• HOA & community: No association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available; No enclosed garage (carport style parking noted)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Cable available; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double-wide; Built in 1976; Updated/Remodeled
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing gas oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Dining bar and kitchen dining space
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpeted porch (interior flooring details not provided)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Dual-pane full windows; Covered patio with awning; Carpeted porch steps with railing; Great room living area; Stone countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet located in kitchen; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $760 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.73%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7600 Golden Eye Ln #43	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,136 (-1%)	1mo	$182,500	$161	88
7324 Azimuth Ln #19	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	7mo	$114,900	$103	76
5913 Cackler Ln #62	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (+8%)	1mo	$126,000	$101	71
7516 Scaup Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	7mo	$123,000	$99	69
7425 Sylmar Ln #181	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+10%)	10mo	$140,000	$110	69
6005 Cackler Ln #55	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	20mo	$105,000	$91	68
7408 Azimuth Ln #242	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-13%)	6mo	$103,000	$103	63
7405 Sylmar Ln #186	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+15%)	11mo	$153,000	$116	62
5825 Hobbs Ln #68	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	1mo	$100,000	$100	60
5831 Eureka	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,238 (+8%)	14mo	$128,500	$104	60
5839 Eureka	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+13%)	13mo	$125,000	$96	56
6935 Daisy Ln	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,323 (+15%)	9mo	$189,000	$143	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $21,673
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $71,368
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7761 Pompei Ct Unit 7763 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,705	$1.89	23d	1	0.52mi
6413 Tupelo Dr Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,000	$2.58	2d	10	0.53mi
7827 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1031	$1,995	$1.94	14d	1	0.69mi
6319 Misty Wood Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,500	$1.72	44d	1	0.76mi
7915 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	1015	$1,895	$1.87	22d	1	0.79mi
5411 Vichy Cir Antelope, CA	2.0	2.0	886	$2,375	$2.68	2d	1	0.86mi
7632 Van Maren Ln Unit 1 Citrus Heights, CA	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,495	$1.92	14d	1	0.91mi
7613 Luzern Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,500	$1.78	11d	1	0.98mi
7120 Van Maren Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,495	$1.93	18d	1	1.00mi
8077 Cornerstone Way Citrus Heights, CA	4.0	2.0	1380	$2,795	$2.03	44d	1	1.04mi
7629 Downing Place Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	2d	1	1.05mi
7135 Cobalt Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	4d	1	1.10mi
6913 Gold Run Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1474	$2,800	$1.90	20d	1	1.10mi
7137 Reyn Oaks Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,455	$1.92	12d	1	1.24mi
7137 Reyn Oaks Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,450	$1.92	2d	1	1.24mi
6841 Concert Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	2d	1	1.26mi
7139 Baranga Dr Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	1.5	1162	$2,500	$2.15	2d	1	1.26mi
5417 Olympic Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,795	$1.95	14d	1	1.37mi
5109 Andrea Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	828	$1,769	$2.14	2d	2	1.37mi
6430 Verner Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$2,295	$3.25	23d	1	1.39mi
4901 Adorn Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1361	$2,450	$1.80	2d	1	1.43mi
6546 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	624	$1,853	$2.97	4d	10	1.43mi
6219 Oak Valley Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,295	$1.76	44d	1	1.44mi
6219 Oak Valley Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	3.0	1304	$2,295	$1.76	18d	1	1.44mi
6544 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	23d	1	1.45mi
7330 Stratford Pl #706 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,600	$1.97	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $149,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $7,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,719
• After-tax cash flow: $7,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $67 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.