Bonneville Plan · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$399,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,807 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Now Selling * * We're building something special at Blue Heron in Mont Belvieu. Just 33 miles from downtown Houston, this new construction Chesmar Homes community offers the perfect mix of serene small-town living and easy access to all the conveniences of the city. Explore our thoughtfully designed, energy-efficient homes with spacious primary retreats, all while enjoying close proximity to work, shopping, and recreation. These new Mont Belvieu homes feature the perfect blend of modern living and community charm and are located within the A+ rated Barbers Hill ISD.

Key facts

• New construction
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 84 days

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOMES
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY RETREATS
• A+ RATED BARBERS HILL ISD

🏗️ New construction. The $399,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $426,902.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-449 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,616 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,902
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -6.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14942 Buffalo Head St	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,807 (0%)	0mo	$430,000	$238	91
15034 Mission Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,807 (0%)	6mo	$439,990	$243	81
10007 Goliad Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (+6%)	6mo	$339,990	$178	76
14810 Buffalo Head St	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,052 (+14%)	5mo	$429,990	$210	62
15027 Mission Ave	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,052 (+14%)	2mo	$463,000	$226	62
15023 Gulfstream Park Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,047 (+13%)	2mo	$400,000	$195	56
7419 Hillside Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-3%)	6mo	$350,000	$199	55
15315 Lake Front Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,047 (+13%)	5mo	$414,900	$203	43
14818 Augusta Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,063 (+14%)	13mo	$414,999	$201	41
15214 Lake Front Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,065 (+14%)	7mo	$369,900	$179	41
7219 Keechi Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+13%)	14mo	$389,900	$190	38
15339 Spring Lake Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,063 (+14%)	18mo	$385,000	$187	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-96,380
• Equity at exit: $63,652

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-114,991
• Equity at exit: $36,911

Cash invested: $119,533 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $397,500 ($198/sqft)
• Median days on market: 101 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,166 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,239
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$534 /mo · $6,404/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $-449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,734

Max offer price $361,937

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-154	-5% $-301	+0% $-449	+5% $-596	+10% $-744
Rent	-10% $-699	-5% $-574	+0% $-449	+5% $-324	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-340	base $-449	+0.5pp $-560	+1.0pp $-672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,726
• Closing costs: $12,807
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9922 Red Knot ST Mont Belvieu, TX	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,399	$1.33	73d	1	0.09mi
7307 Hillside Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,756	$1.20	20d	1	0.52mi
7514 Oakmont Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,611	$1.35	23d	1	0.66mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	7d	1	1.46mi
15218 Arnold Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	0d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $399,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home, Bonneville planActive new construction listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,807

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Bonneville)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $399,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $399,990 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $399,990 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $399,990 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $399,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $399,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $399,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $399,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $399,990 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $399,990 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 60 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 59 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 58 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 57 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 56 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 55 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $399,990 Active 53 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 52 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 51 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 50 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 49 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 48 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 47 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 46 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 45 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 44 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $399,990 Active 43 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 42 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 40 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 38 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 37 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 34 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $399,990 Active 33 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 32 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 31 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $399,990 Active 29 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $405,990 Active 25 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $405,990 Active 24 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $405,990 Active 23 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $405,990 Active 20 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $405,990 Active 19 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $405,990 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,913
• − Property taxes: −$6,404
• − Insurance: −$2,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,040
• − Management: −$3,040
• − Depreciation: −$12,419
• Taxable loss: −$12,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,109
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $399,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home, Bonneville planActive new construction listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,807

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Bonneville)