7728 Royal Fern Dr · Denton, TX 76259

$305,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,403 sqft lot Est $345k · 11% under $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Monarch at the Meadows, a fabulous unique master planned community in Denton and Krum ISD! The two-story Dawson Floorplan, Elevation A, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs game room, and a 2-car garage, providing a thoughtfully designed layout ideal for modern living. The open-concept first floor features a welcoming family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and contemporary kitchen, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Quartz countertops
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• WELCOMING FAMILY ROOM
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-465/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Krum Early Education Center (430 students, 49% FRL); Krum Middle (math 48% / reading 47%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 541 students, 37% FRL); Krum H S (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 686 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,578 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,898
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Amber Fields Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,129 (0%)	2mo	$306,990	$144	90
616 Amber Fields Dr	0.14mi	5/3.0	2,093 (-2%)	3mo	$358,240	$171	88
540 Amber Fields Dr	0.14mi	5/3.0	2,093 (-2%)	2mo	$349,990	$167	88
548 Shaded Grove Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (-2%)	3mo	$337,990	$162	78
713 Wildrye Ln	0.07mi	5/2.5	1,818 (-15%)	1mo	$299,990	$165	70
533 Amber Fields Dr	0.13mi	5/2.5	1,818 (-15%)	2mo	$293,990	$162	66
521 Amber Fields Dr	0.15mi	5/2.5	1,818 (-15%)	2mo	$297,990	$164	65
509 Amber Fields Dr	0.18mi	5/2.5	1,818 (-15%)	1mo	$290,990	$160	65
640 Shaded Grv	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	3mo	$342,990	$145	63
553 Red Admiral Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	2mo	$340,990	$144	61
405 Red Admiral Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	0mo	$353,990	$150	58
7524 Lavender Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,877 (-12%)	0mo	$388,334	$207	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-51,989
• Equity at exit: $45,624

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-48,191
• Equity at exit: $26,456

Cash invested: $85,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,590/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $300,381

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $67	+0% $-39	+5% $-144	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-144	+0% $-39	+5% $67	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $39	base $-39	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,498
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7709 Tuscarora Dr Ponder, TX	5.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	13d	1	0.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   listed $305,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,140
• − Property taxes: −$4,590
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable loss: −$5,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,355
• After-tax cash flow: $890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Monarch at the Meadows is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. The highest-ROI updates would include painting, new flooring, and new kitchen appliances to enhance both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and minor landscaping touch-ups — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves durability and appearance.
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and minor landscaping touch-ups — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves durability and appearance. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $305,990 NTREIS