21 Pritchard St · Buffalo, NY 14210

$219,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1945 6,624 sqft lot $175/sqft · 5% below area Est $233k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 21 Pritchard, a tastefully updated expanded 3 bed 1 bath Cape nestled on a quiet dead-end street, offering both comfort and privacy in a peaceful neighborhood setting. The first floor boasts an open concept kitchen / LR combo perfect for large gatherings or just hanging out. The next floor has 2 bedrooms and a full bath with a brand new tub surround ('26). The top floor is one large bedroom with lots of storage and tons of natural light. This well-maintained home features several key updates, including a new furnace, HWT, & central A/C system (all '23). Step outside and enjoy the above ground pool - ready for summer enjoyment. A large driveway offers ample parking for multiple vehicles, making hosting guests easy and convenient. Only 10 minutes to downtown. Open Houses: Sat 4/25 & Sun 4/26 11am-1pm. Offers will be reviewed beginning Tues 4/28 @ 12pm.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Central a c system
• New hwt

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN LR COMBO
• BRAND NEW TUB SURROUND
• TONS OF NATURAL LIGHT
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW HWT
• CENTRAL A C SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $220k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,016 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,641
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -5.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
243 Burch Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-4%)	6mo	$240,000	$199	65
91 Armin Pl	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,330 (+6%)	0mo	$175,000	$132	64
248 Kirkwood Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,309 (+4%)	4mo	$192,000	$147	64
102 Pomona Pl	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (-2%)	2mo	$81,000	$66	60
93 Salem St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,184 (-6%)	1mo	$235,000	$198	58
204 Aurora Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,185 (-6%)	5mo	$234,000	$197	55
105 Armin Pl	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,352 (+7%)	6mo	$170,000	$126	55
323 Kirkwood Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,125 (-11%)	5mo	$210,000	$187	55
330 Cumberland Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,321 (+5%)	6mo	$217,000	$164	54
428 Indian Church Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+7%)	5mo	$130,000	$97	53
59 Hammerschmidt Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,405 (+12%)	1mo	$232,500	$165	46
214 Aurora Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+14%)	5mo	$215,000	$149	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $98,454
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $331,337
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $154,308

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	0.19mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	43d	1	0.35mi
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	43d	1	0.42mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	23d	1	0.55mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	14d	1	0.59mi
102 Wildwood Pl Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	15d	1	0.65mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	1d	1	0.66mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	1d	1	0.71mi
78 Kirkwood Dr Unit Lower Unit West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	1808	$1,375	$0.76	1d	1	0.77mi
46 Kirkwood Dr Unit Lower West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	15d	1	0.80mi
86 Edgewood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	1d	1	0.87mi
214 Abbott Rd Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,200	$1.27	14d	1	0.95mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	10d	1	1.21mi
74 Woodside Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,510	$1.21	1d	1	1.36mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 884-char remark

   Show marketing remark (884 chars)

   Welcome to 21 Pritchard, a tastefully updated expanded 3 bed 1 bath Cape nestled on a quiet dead-end street, offering both comfort and privacy in a peaceful neighborhood setting. The first floor boasts an open concept kitchen / LR combo perfect for large gatherings or just hanging out. The next floor has 2 bedrooms and a full bath with a brand new tub surround ('26). The top floor is one large bedroom with lots of storage and tons of natural light. This well-maintained home features several key updates, including a new furnace, HWT, & central A/C system (all '23). Step outside and enjoy the above ground pool - ready for summer enjoyment. A large driveway offers ample parking for multiple vehicles, making hosting guests easy and convenient. Only 10 minutes to downtown. Open Houses: Sat 4/25 & Sun 4/26 11am-1pm. Offers will be reviewed beginning Tues 4/28 @ 12pm.

2. 2026-04-22
   listed $219,900 Active 884-char remark

   Show marketing remark (884 chars)

   Welcome to 21 Pritchard, a tastefully updated expanded 3 bed 1 bath Cape nestled on a quiet dead-end street, offering both comfort and privacy in a peaceful neighborhood setting. The first floor boasts an open concept kitchen / LR combo perfect for large gatherings or just hanging out. The next floor has 2 bedrooms and a full bath with a brand new tub surround ('26). The top floor is one large bedroom with lots of storage and tons of natural light. This well-maintained home features several key updates, including a new furnace, HWT, & central A/C system (all '23). Step outside and enjoy the above ground pool - ready for summer enjoyment. A large driveway offers ample parking for multiple vehicles, making hosting guests easy and convenient. Only 10 minutes to downtown. Open Houses: Sat 4/25 & Sun 4/26 11am-1pm. Offers will be reviewed beginning Tues 4/28 @ 12pm.

3. 2017-02-13
   soldstatus $74,500 Closed Sale or Rented 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Come check out this large private lot in South Buffalo with no rear neighbors. 3 bedroom 1 bath vinyl sided home with newer 30 year architectural shingle roof. Newer HWT. Appliances included (refrigerator/stove/washer/dryer) Laminate floors in living room. Large master bedroom with laminate floors. Above ground pool. Air conditioning. Bring your ideas for decorative touches.

4. 2017-02-06
   soldstatus $74,500
5. 2016-12-06
   status Pending Sale 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Come check out this large private lot in South Buffalo with no rear neighbors. 3 bedroom 1 bath vinyl sided home with newer 30 year architectural shingle roof. Newer HWT. Appliances included (refrigerator/stove/washer/dryer) Laminate floors in living room. Large master bedroom with laminate floors. Above ground pool. Air conditioning. Bring your ideas for decorative touches.

6. 2016-11-22
   historical Under Contract- Do Not Show 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Come check out this large private lot in South Buffalo with no rear neighbors. 3 bedroom 1 bath vinyl sided home with newer 30 year architectural shingle roof. Newer HWT. Appliances included (refrigerator/stove/washer/dryer) Laminate floors in living room. Large master bedroom with laminate floors. Above ground pool. Air conditioning. Bring your ideas for decorative touches.

7. 2016-11-09
   status Active 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Come check out this large private lot in South Buffalo with no rear neighbors. 3 bedroom 1 bath vinyl sided home with newer 30 year architectural shingle roof. Newer HWT. Appliances included (refrigerator/stove/washer/dryer) Laminate floors in living room. Large master bedroom with laminate floors. Above ground pool. Air conditioning. Bring your ideas for decorative touches.

8. 2016-11-08
   historical Under Contract- Do Not Show 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Come check out this large private lot in South Buffalo with no rear neighbors. 3 bedroom 1 bath vinyl sided home with newer 30 year architectural shingle roof. Newer HWT. Appliances included (refrigerator/stove/washer/dryer) Laminate floors in living room. Large master bedroom with laminate floors. Above ground pool. Air conditioning. Bring your ideas for decorative touches.

9. 2016-10-24
   price $79,900 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Come check out this large private lot in South Buffalo with no rear neighbors. 3 bedroom 1 bath vinyl sided home with newer 30 year architectural shingle roof. Newer HWT. Appliances included (refrigerator/stove/washer/dryer) Laminate floors in living room. Large master bedroom with laminate floors. Above ground pool. Air conditioning. Bring your ideas for decorative touches.

10. 2016-10-11
    price $84,900 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Come check out this large private lot in South Buffalo with no rear neighbors. 3 bedroom 1 bath vinyl sided home with newer 30 year architectural shingle roof. Newer HWT. Appliances included (refrigerator/stove/washer/dryer) Laminate floors in living room. Large master bedroom with laminate floors. Above ground pool. Air conditioning. Bring your ideas for decorative touches.

11. 2016-09-22
    listed $89,900 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Come check out this large private lot in South Buffalo with no rear neighbors. 3 bedroom 1 bath vinyl sided home with newer 30 year architectural shingle roof. Newer HWT. Appliances included (refrigerator/stove/washer/dryer) Laminate floors in living room. Large master bedroom with laminate floors. Above ground pool. Air conditioning. Bring your ideas for decorative touches.

12. 2002-02-20
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,766
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$9,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-02-13 Sold (MLS) $74,500 WNYREIS
• 2017-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2016-12-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-11-22 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2016-11-09 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2016-11-08 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2016-10-24 Price Changed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-10-11 Price Changed $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-09-22 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS
• 2002-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $437 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.