Emma Plan · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$162,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The 700 square-foot Emma floor plan is designed to make everyday living easier. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite countertopStainless steel appliances (stovetop & oven, dishwasher)Ultra large stacked LG washer and dryer included

Key facts

• Covered entry
• Granite countertop
• Listed 45 days

Tags

• BRICK AND VINYL EXTERIOR
• COVERED ENTRY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOP
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as Emma Plan, Wolfforth, TX 79382; Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $162,950

Exterior

• Home design: Plan named Emma; Single-level plan
• Construction: New construction plan
• Exterior features: 700 living area (square footage not shown in interior/exterior sections as per instructions)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Active listing status

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $113,184 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.10%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $73,991
• Equity at exit: $146,798

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $229,543
• Equity at exit: $316,576

Cash invested: $45,626 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$204 /mo · $2,444/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $129,387

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-176	+0% $-232	+5% $-288	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-277	+0% $-232	+5% $-187	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-150	-0.5pp $-191	base $-232	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,738
• Closing costs: $4,888
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,950 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,950 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,950 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,950 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,950 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $162,950 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,950 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,950 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $162,950 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $162,950 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $162,950 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $162,950 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $162,950 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,950 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $162,950 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $162,950 Active 292-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,128
• − Property taxes: −$2,444
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,087
• − Management: −$1,087
• − Depreciation: −$4,740
• Taxable loss: −$5,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B