10040 Monarch Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1963 5,201 sqft lot $41/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1-bath home in need of renovations. No basement. Property offers a functional layout and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to update and customize. Ideal for investors or owner-occupants willing to renovate. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 5,201 sq ft lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 126 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 13.0% in Castle Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.27%
• DSCR: 4.97
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,179
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -64.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10117 Royal Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	83
10236 Monarch Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5	850 (-2%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	79
10228 Viscount Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5	925 (+7%)	2mo	$155,000	$168	68
9984 Duke Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	960 (+11%)	1mo	$54,000	$56	67
10501 Baron Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	888 (+3%)	2mo	$99,000	$111	62
2042 Kappel Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	828 (-4%)	1mo	$49,900	$60	60
10067 Prince Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	945 (+9%)	3mo	$25,000	$26	55
9840 Green Valley Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-6%)	2mo	$83,000	$102	50
9858 Green Valley Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	936 (+8%)	2mo	$74,900	$80	47
10429 Earl Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	770 (-11%)	1mo	$35,000	$45	47
9828 Omega Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	988 (+14%)	0mo	$100,000	$101	46
2014 Kappel Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	989 (+14%)	2mo	$19,000	$19	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $54,682
• Equity at exit: $17,318

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.7%
• Equity multiple: 14.45×
• Total profit: $131,835
• Equity at exit: $27,988

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $323

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.16mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.16mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.18mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	0.26mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	44d	1	0.31mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	44d	1	0.38mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	0.44mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.48mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	44d	1	0.51mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	0.53mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	22d	1	0.55mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.59mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	44d	1	0.61mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.61mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.65mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	7d	1	0.65mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	7d	1	0.68mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	0.69mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	23d	1	0.69mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.70mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	0.70mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.71mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	15d	1	0.73mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	23d	1	0.80mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	0.81mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	22d	1	0.81mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	44d	1	0.82mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.82mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	15d	1	0.91mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.93mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	10d	1	1.05mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	1.13mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	18d	1	1.17mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	15d	1	1.17mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	1.21mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	1.22mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	1.24mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	1.26mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	44d	1	1.27mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $35,000 Pending 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $35,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $35,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $35,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-02-05
   listed $35,000 Active 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1-bath home in need of renovations. No basement. Property offers a functional layout and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to update and customize. Ideal for investors or owner-occupants willing to renovate. Sold as-is.

10. 2021-10-07
    soldstatus $323,559
11. 2021-07-08
    soldstatus $37,000
12. 2021-07-01
    soldstatus $30,000
13. 2019-08-13
    soldstatus $10,000
14. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus Closed 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    Excellent Investment Three Bedroom One Bath Ranch Home on Cinder Block Crawl Space Foundation Needing TLC for Occupancy. Some Newer Flooring, Windows, Doors, & Fixtures. Needs All Systems & Appliances including Plumbing Repairs. Call Your Full Time Realtor for Questions or to Schedule Your Showing Today!

15. 2019-07-25
    status Pending 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    Excellent Investment Three Bedroom One Bath Ranch Home on Cinder Block Crawl Space Foundation Needing TLC for Occupancy. Some Newer Flooring, Windows, Doors, & Fixtures. Needs All Systems & Appliances including Plumbing Repairs. Call Your Full Time Realtor for Questions or to Schedule Your Showing Today!

16. 2019-07-09
    listed $14,900 Active 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    Excellent Investment Three Bedroom One Bath Ranch Home on Cinder Block Crawl Space Foundation Needing TLC for Occupancy. Some Newer Flooring, Windows, Doors, & Fixtures. Needs All Systems & Appliances including Plumbing Repairs. Call Your Full Time Realtor for Questions or to Schedule Your Showing Today!

17. 2015-02-12
    soldstatus $49,950
18. 2015-01-21
    soldstatus $38,500
19. 2014-05-28
    soldstatus
20. 2014-04-02
    listed $9,900
21. 2004-08-10
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 2003-11-20
    soldstatus
23. 2003-11-20
    soldstatus
24. 2003-11-19
    soldstatus $10,000
25. 1994-11-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $8,720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,093
• After-tax cash flow: $6,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $35,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $323,559 Public Records
• 2021-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-09 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-25 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-09 Listed $14,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $49,950 Public Records
• 2015-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records
• 2014-05-28 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-02 Listed $9,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1994-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $683 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.