2126 Quail Valley East Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1976 7,557 sqft lot Est $246k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great starter home or investment home! Priced to allow you to start your dream of home ownership. Currently tenant occupied. Great location with easy access to the Fort Bend Toll Road, Hwy 288 and the Medical Center. Home is solid with good bones. You can get in and make it your own.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spacious backyard
• New ceiling fans

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,536
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Quail Valley East HOA; Annual association fee of $200 (covers clubhouse, common areas, recreation facilities); Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, playground, picnic area, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 1976; Composition roof; Concrete road access; Subdivision lot
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Back yard fence; Tennis court(s) (association)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Free‑standing range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Pantry; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-949/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,365 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2126 Quail Valley East Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	99
2239 Fall Meadow Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-0%)	0mo	$224,900	$147	91
2015 Quail Valley East Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-0%)	4mo	$225,000	$147	89
2307 Clearbrook Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-4%)	0mo	$247,990	$168	80
3290 Hunters Glen Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+9%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	77
2254 Stillmeadow Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-0%)	3mo	$265,000	$173	76
3107 Southern Hills Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-0%)	1mo	$265,000	$173	69
3710 Quail Meadow Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+9%)	3mo	$250,000	$149	59
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,740 (+13%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	56
1615 Turtle Creek Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+12%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	51
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+13%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	50
3819 Glen Cove Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+14%)	2mo	$228,000	$130	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,559
• Equity at exit: $52,411

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,487
• Equity at exit: $48,545

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,281/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,264

Max offer price $235,934

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-8	+0% $-79	+5% $-150	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-165	+0% $-79	+5% $6	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-15	base $-79	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	0.45mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.55mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.98mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	22d	1	1.15mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	14d	1	1.31mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	1.42mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2025-09-25
   soldstatus
5. 2025-09-24
   soldstatus
6. 2025-09-23
   soldstatus Closed 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   This is a great starter home or investment home! Priced to allow you to start your dream of home ownership. Currently tenant occupied. Great location with easy access to the Fort Bend Toll Road, Hwy 288 and the Medical Center. Home is solid with good bones. You can get in and make it your own.

7. 2025-09-11
   status Pending 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   This is a great starter home or investment home! Priced to allow you to start your dream of home ownership. Currently tenant occupied. Great location with easy access to the Fort Bend Toll Road, Hwy 288 and the Medical Center. Home is solid with good bones. You can get in and make it your own.

8. 2025-08-22
   listed $225,000 Active 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   This is a great starter home or investment home! Priced to allow you to start your dream of home ownership. Currently tenant occupied. Great location with easy access to the Fort Bend Toll Road, Hwy 288 and the Medical Center. Home is solid with good bones. You can get in and make it your own.

9. 2003-02-28
   historical
10. 2002-08-03
    listed $94,500
11. 1993-10-14
    soldstatus
12. 1993-10-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,281 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,281
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+164.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2003-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-08-03 Listed $94,500 HARMLS
• 1993-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,281 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.