2918 N Ranch Road 620 Rd Unit W219 · Hudson Bend, TX 78734

$250,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,395 sqft · Condo · 467 Days on market

Built 1999 Good condition $179/sqft · 34% below area Est $380k · 34% under $880/mo HOA · 38% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy resort-style living in the heart of Lakeway! This well-priced condo in a gated community offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance living. Residents have access to a variety of amenities including a sparkling community pool, tennis courts, and private lake access - ideal for those who love the outdoors and an active lifestyle. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat, a weekend getaway, or a full-time residence, this unit delivers great value in a prime location along RR 620 with easy access to shopping, dining, and Lake Travis. Don't miss this opportunity to own a slice of the good life!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community pool
• Tennis courts

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PRIVATE LAKE ACCESS
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-795 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (46.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 1.6% in Hudson Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,006 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Travis El (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 763 students, 38% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 547 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 467 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,028 (46.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 467 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.62%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,243
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -34.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit L-176	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,386 (-1%)	5mo	$370,000	$267	94
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit T250	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,395 (0%)	6mo	$255,000	$183	93
2918 Ranch Road 620 Rd N Unit C122	0.00mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,556 (+12%)	1mo	$199,000	$128	73
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit U-254	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,204 (-14%)	4mo	$245,000	$203	71
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit C120	0.06mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,542 (+10%)	2mo	$239,999	$156	71
2918 N Ranch Road 620 Unit B112	0.00mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,593 (+14%)	4mo	$229,900	$144	66
2001 Rain Water Dr	1.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,478 (+6%)	1mo	$409,000	$277	47
2108 Indian Creek Rd	1.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-5%)	2mo	$425,000	$322	47
2003 Rain Water Dr	1.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+6%)	2mo	$459,000	$311	47
3139 Chisholm Trl	1.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,271 (-9%)	2mo	$389,900	$307	41
2308 Rain Water Dr	1.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,692 (+21%)	2mo	$525,000	$310	34
3008 Brass Buttons Trl	1.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,688 (+21%)	3mo	$465,000	$275	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-86,930
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-123,232
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78734

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 547
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$880
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,301

Max offer price $135,028

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-622	-5% $-708	+0% $-795	+5% $-881	+10% $-967
Rent	-10% $-976	-5% $-885	+0% $-795	+5% $-704	+10% $-613
Rate	-1.0pp $-669	-0.5pp $-731	base $-795	+0.5pp $-859	+1.0pp $-925

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2918 Ranch to Market Road 620 Unit 172 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,995	$1.72	93d	1	0.04mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit C118 Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1544	$2,200	$1.42	21d	1	0.05mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit V267 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,100	$1.81	93d	1	0.05mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit C120 Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1542	$2,475	$1.61	51d	1	0.05mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit Y194 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,195	$1.82	53d	1	0.05mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit J162 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	24d	1	0.05mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N Apt 272 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1395	$2,195	$1.57	52d	1	0.08mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #204 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,095	$1.81	31d	1	0.09mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #265 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,100	$1.74	52d	1	0.09mi
15216 Kevin Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	73d	1	0.39mi
15314 Oklahoma St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,300	$2.08	13d	1	0.49mi
15306 Oklahoma St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,650	$1.55	93d	1	0.53mi
15303 Texas St Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,400	$1.94	73d	1	0.57mi
2208 N FM 620 Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$2,136	$1.84	9d	15	0.70mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit A Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,495	$1.29	71d	1	0.71mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,379	$1.19	47d	1	0.71mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,379	$1.19	17d	1	0.71mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,600	$1.38	93d	1	0.71mi
14711 Little Fox Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1729	$2,495	$1.44	25d	1	0.86mi
3248 Brass Buttons Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,200	$1.78	73d	1	1.10mi
1104 Buffalo Gap Rd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$3,500	$2.63	9d	1	1.39mi
4300 Mansfield Dam Rd #1021 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$3,190	$1.89	93d	1	1.40mi
4301 Mansfield Dam Rd #2102 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,425	$1.39	30d	1	1.45mi
2627 Geronimo Trl Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	912	$2,750	$3.02	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail $880/mo · $10,560/yr condo

• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 467 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $250,000 Active 465 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $250,000 Active 464 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 463 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 462 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 459 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $250,000 Active 457 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $250,000 Active 456 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $250,000 Active 454 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 452 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 451 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 450 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 449 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $250,000 Active 448 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 446 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 445 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 444 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $250,000 Active 443 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $250,000 Active 442 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 441 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 440 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $250,000 Active 439 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,000 Active 438 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 437 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 435 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $250,000 Active 434 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 433 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 431 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 430 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 429 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 428 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $250,000 Active 427 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,000 Active 426 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $250,000 Active 425 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $250,000 Active 424 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 422 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 420 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 419 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 416 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,000 Active 415 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    statusdays on market $250,000 Active 414 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 413 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 411 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 407 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 406 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 405 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 402 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 401 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 400 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 399 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − HOA: −$10,560
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$13,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,288
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,975–$20,925 screening

This well-maintained and attractive condo in a gated community offers a great blend of comfort and low-maintenance living. It's in excellent condition with minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Travis El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Hudson Bend Middle B- TX #256/1,662 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Lake Travis H S B- TX #199/1,632 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Hudson Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1006
• US rank: #17863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,145
• Household income: $130,784
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.08%
• Current HPI: 216.0323
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $256,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $257,400 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $259,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $264,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $269,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $279,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $289,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-11 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2015-04-29 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2015-04-08 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2015-03-24 Listed $210,000 Unlock MLS
• 2015-02-28 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2015-01-06 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2014-08-22 Listed — Unlock MLS