2808 Longhorn Dr · Llano Grande, TX 78596

$178,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2020 8,106 sqft lot $148/sqft · 5% below area Est $188k · 5% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to SELL! Step into this fully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,300 sq. ft. of modern living! This property features a brand-new kitchen, beautifully updated showers, and fresh paint inside and out-giving you that "like-new" feel without the new construction price tag. Sitting on an oversized 8,100 sq. ft. lot, this fully fenced home with electric gate delivers the privacy and space you've been looking for perfect for entertaining, pets, or future expansion. Homes with this level of upgrades, lot size, and price point don't last long-schedule your showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Updated showers
• Fully fenced
• Brand-new kitchen

Tags

• FULLY UPGRADED
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• UPDATED SHOWERS
• FULLY FENCED
• OVERSIZED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City sewer
• Home design: Single-story property; Living area recorded by appraiser
• Construction: HardiPlank type siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.1861-acre lot
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Patio; Irregular lot; Gravel road access; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; No conveying appliances
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Smoke detectors
• Interior features: Granite countertops; Ceiling fans; Decorative / high ceilings; No window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer/dryer connections

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,288 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cleckler/Heald El (math 20% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 948 students, 82% FRL); Beatriz G Garza Middle (math 26% / reading 37%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 958 students, 76% FRL); Weslaco East H S (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,004 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 59% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 711 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $191 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,023 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,227
• List price: $178,000
• Delta: -5.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3120 Boca Chica Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	3mo	$115,000	$109	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,335
• Equity at exit: $46,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,106
• Equity at exit: $51,999

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78596

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 711
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,467/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,536

Max offer price $163,277

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-33	+0% $-83	+5% $-134	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-140	+0% $-83	+5% $-27	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-38	base $-83	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Ginger Ave Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	45d	1	0.89mi
2801 Laquinta Weslaco, TX	2.0	1.0	984	$1,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.90mi
2101 Brightwood Ave Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,750	$1.17	46d	1	1.00mi
1635 Playa Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	45d	1	1.49mi
1630 Playa Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	935	$1,095	$1.17	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $178,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $178,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $178,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $178,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $178,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $178,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $178,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-30
    listed $180,000 Active 617-char remark
19. 2025-09-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,467 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,257 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,467
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$4,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $-19/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Llano Grande

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1288
• US rank: #22408

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Llano Grande, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,942

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 38% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 72%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Current HPI: 261.5117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $178,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $180,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+34.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,467 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.