1147 Coniferous Ave · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$189,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Land · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 2,178 sqft lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 680441 - Built by NHC - Ready Now ~ The Coronado is a thoughtfully designed townhome that delivers comfort, flexibility, and modern living across two well-appointed levels. With approximately 1,600 square feet, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath plan offers the space you need in a layout that works for the way you live. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and a Spacious entryway that leads into an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area. The kitchen features a central island and a direct connection to the main living spaces-perfect for everyday living and effortless entertaining. A conveniently located powder room completes the main floor. Upstairs, a flexible loft provi

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FLEXIBLE LOFT
• WELL-APPOINTED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 513 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $189,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,155
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $537
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $189,990 Active
3. 2026-03-31
   historical
4. 2026-01-27
   price $199,990
5. 2026-01-27
   price $194,490
6. 2025-12-22
   price $195,990
7. 2025-12-17
   price $196,785
8. 2025-12-02
   price $197,987
9. 2025-11-11
   listed $200,997 Active
10. 2025-10-01
    historical
11. 2025-09-17
    price $234,594
12. 2025-09-10
    price $234,995
13. 2025-09-06
    price $239,496
14. 2025-09-04
    price $239,997
15. 2025-08-21
    price $239,990
16. 2025-07-26
    price $249,990
17. 2025-07-16
    price $269,990
18. 2025-07-10
    price $249,990
19. 2025-06-24
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $2,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $189,990 PARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $199,990 PARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $194,490 PARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $195,990 PARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $196,785 PARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $197,987 PARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $200,997 PARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $234,594 PARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $234,995 PARMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $239,496 PARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $239,997 PARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $239,990 PARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $249,990 PARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $269,990 PARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $249,990 PARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $250,000 PARMLS