15519 Schank Rd · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$171,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Land · 297 Days on market

Built 1996 0.33 ac lot $127/sqft · 12% above area Est $153k · 12% over $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3/2 manufactured home in the developing community of Forest Trace North. Close to shopping, entertainment, schools, and major highways. Great place with lots of potential, perfect for creating memories with your loved ones. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 297 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $171k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $171k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.99%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,634
• List price: $171,000
• Delta: 12.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,821
• Equity at exit: $25,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $41,911
• Equity at exit: $14,785

Cash invested: $47,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$214 /mo · $2,565/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,534

Max offer price $171,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,750
• Closing costs: $5,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	21d	1	0.63mi
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	43d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $171,000 Active 297 DOM
2. 2025-10-12
   price $171,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Nice 3/2 manufactured home in the developing community of Forest Trace North. Close to shopping, entertainment, schools, and major highways. Great place with lots of potential, perfect for creating memories with your loved ones. Schedule your showing today.

3. 2025-09-12
   price $180,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Nice 3/2 manufactured home in the developing community of Forest Trace North. Close to shopping, entertainment, schools, and major highways. Great place with lots of potential, perfect for creating memories with your loved ones. Schedule your showing today.

4. 2025-08-07
   listed $185,000 Active 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Nice 3/2 manufactured home in the developing community of Forest Trace North. Close to shopping, entertainment, schools, and major highways. Great place with lots of potential, perfect for creating memories with your loved ones. Schedule your showing today.

5. 2025-04-02
   historical
6. 2024-09-01
   listed $199,000 Active
7. 2024-07-05
   historical
8. 2024-05-04
   listed $199,000 Active
9. 2024-01-31
   historical
10. 2023-06-29
    status Active
11. 2023-05-19
    status Pending
12. 2023-05-10
    status Option Pending
13. 2023-04-25
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,579
• − Property taxes: −$2,565
• − Insurance: −$855
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$4,975
• Taxable income: $3,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$776
• After-tax cash flow: $4,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $171,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-04 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-25 Listed $169,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $261 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.