2418 Morris St · Saginaw, MI 48601

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1904 0.29 ac lot Est $44k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Great investment is a 3 bdr 1 bath , fenced in yard, 2 car garage, central air, new windows and roof! Many new updates with plumbing, electrical! Just need a little TLC. ..

Key facts

• Plumbing
• Central air
• Fenced in yard

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• CENTRAL AIR
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW UPDATES
• PLUMBING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot measures approximately 12,632 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.8% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $30k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.21%
• DSCR: 5.68
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2701 Sheridan Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	924 (-3%)	3mo	$74,272	$80	85
2411 Beechwood Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	952 (+0%)	8mo	$40,000	$42	84
3133 Glenwood Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	936 (-2%)	6mo	$43,000	$46	69
2928 Walters Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	936 (-2%)	7mo	$36,000	$38	68
3221 Fulton St	0.62mi	3/1.5	972 (+2%)	1mo	$47,000	$48	64
3012 Walters Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+6%)	7mo	$50,000	$50	58
2626 Hampshire St	0.71mi	3/1.0	975 (+3%)	8mo	$35,000	$36	56
2822 Kensington Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+6%)	2mo	$76,900	$76	56
2221 Owen St	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	962 (+1%)	10mo	$12,500	$13	54
3353 Drexel Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	975 (+3%)	11mo	$11,250	$12	54
3310 Lexington Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,014 (+7%)	4mo	$67,000	$66	53
3212 Lowell Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-9%)	10mo	$13,000	$15	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $42,092
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.58×
• Total profit: $97,239
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $318

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	43d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 177-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $30,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,141
• After-tax cash flow: $6,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $30,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2020-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $974 · -17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.