3531 Esther Pl · Baltimore, MD 21224

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · Townhouse public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1900 1,212 sqft lot $90/sqft · 6% below area Est $107k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.83%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,699
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -6.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
149 N Highland Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,170 (+5%)	1mo	$75,000	$64	86
111 N Highland Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,170 (+5%)	1mo	$105,000	$90	80
14 S Curley St	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-2%)	1mo	$269,000	$246	75
629 N Kenwood Ave	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,100 (-1%)	1mo	$76,500	$70	67
134 N Curley St	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,170 (+5%)	1mo	$270,000	$231	67
122 Ellwood Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+8%)	0mo	$235,000	$196	65
309 S Fagley St	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,030 (-7%)	1mo	$225,000	$218	63
441 N East Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	976 (-12%)	2mo	$175,000	$179	57
3135 Mcelderry St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (+10%)	1mo	$234,000	$191	56
2703 Jefferson St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (+5%)	2mo	$102,500	$88	56
520 S Bouldin St	0.61mi	2/1.5	1,212 (+9%)	1mo	$345,000	$285	54
735 N Lakewood Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	970 (-13%)	2mo	$80,000	$82	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $30,819
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $78,698
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21224

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,645/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3430 E Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1316	$2,250	$1.71	23d	1	0.09mi
3436 Leverton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	23d	1	0.14mi
113 N Clinton St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,995	$1.53	43d	1	0.15mi
3413 Leverton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	832	$1,000	$1.20	23d	1	0.16mi
3205 Esther Pl Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	960	$1,850	$1.93	23d	1	0.21mi
17 N East Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1326	$2,550	$1.92	23d	1	0.23mi
115 S Eaton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1393	$1,800	$1.29	16d	1	0.25mi
3710 E Pratt St Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	23d	1	0.26mi
106 S Bouldin St Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.0	1134	$2,100	$1.85	20d	1	0.27mi
29 N Ellwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,395	$2.18	23d	1	0.28mi
201 S Conkling St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	740	$1,500	$2.03	2d	2	0.29mi
203 N Ellwood Ave Unit Main Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	880	$2,200	$2.50	23d	1	0.29mi
404 N Robinson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1320	$2,200	$1.67	23d	1	0.31mi
404 N Robinson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	16d	1	0.31mi
127 S Robinson St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	43d	1	0.33mi
235 S Highland Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1222	$2,000	$1.64	23d	1	0.33mi
3304 McElderry St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,900	$1.34	43d	1	0.35mi
223 Grundy St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	23d	1	0.37mi
150 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1266	$1,850	$1.46	17d	1	0.42mi
520 N Decker Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	43d	1	0.43mi
321 Fagley St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	20d	1	0.44mi
400 S Conkling St Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	43d	1	0.45mi
102 S Curley St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	4d	1	0.46mi
34 N Linwood Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1288	$2,400	$1.86	23d	1	0.46mi
400 S Highland Ave Unit 402 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	43d	1	0.46mi
2815 Orleans St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1204	$1,600	$1.33	1d	1	0.49mi
10 N Streeper St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,500	$1.74	23d	1	0.50mi
3232 Eastern Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.5	874	$2,260	$2.59	1d	1	0.51mi
3905 Bank St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0–3.0	909	$2,350	$2.58	2d	20	0.51mi
2800 Orleans St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	0.52mi
2800 Orleans St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,600	$1.14	17d	1	0.52mi
2934 E Monument St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,499	$1.25	43d	1	0.54mi
4015 Eastern Ave Unit 2L Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	0.58mi
415 N Belnord Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	23d	1	0.58mi
718 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	4d	1	0.59mi
724 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	4d	1	0.59mi
502 S Haven St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	16d	1	0.60mi
502 S Haven St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	23d	1	0.60mi
133 S Macon St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	17d	1	0.61mi
3801 Fleet St Unit 209 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.5	814	$1,899	$2.33	43d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    listed $100,000 Active
15. 2002-03-06
    historical
16. 2001-09-07
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,645 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,645 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,645
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $8,451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,028
• After-tax cash flow: $7,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,465
• Household income: $89,017
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1786.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.23%
• Current HPI: 241.284
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-03-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-09-07 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,645 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.