45 Hackensack Rd · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$299,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 651 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1937 6,098 sqft lot $461/sqft · 22% below area Est $382k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special!! ...This home is one out of 6 being offered that could be a package deal.. long term good tenants would like to stay .. Low taxes .. quiet street.. valid rental permit in place too.. up and coming Beechwood development starting soon here .. Be the 1st!!

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1937
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $300k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.94%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,323
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -21.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Lafayette Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0	624 (-4%)	4mo	$350,000	$561	65
180 Woodside Rd	0.18mi	2/1.0	694 (+7%)	22mo	$380,000	$548	62
116 Elder Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0	682 (+5%)	15mo	$215,000	$315	60
32 Bogota Rd	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	748 (+15%)	16mo	$360,000	$481	52
59 Moriches Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0	580 (-11%)	10mo	$300,000	$517	47
15 Robinwood Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	700 (+8%)	10mo	$461,000	$659	45
202 Forest Rd W	0.71mi	2/1.0	560 (-14%)	7mo	$230,000	$411	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $176,472
• Equity at exit: $270,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $509,358
• Equity at exit: $582,815

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,477/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,516

Max offer price $299,990

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
79 Manor Dr Shirley, NY	2.0	1.0	600	$2,800	$4.67	1d	1	0.84mi
67 Saint George Dr Shirley, NY	2.0	1.0	714	$2,750	$3.85	44d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $299,990 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    listed $299,990 Active 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    Investor Special!! ...This home is one out of 6 being offered that could be a package deal.. long term good tenants would like to stay .. Low taxes .. quiet street.. valid rental permit in place too.. up and coming Beechwood development starting soon here .. Be the 1st!!

16. 2021-02-02
    soldstatus $180,000
17. 2021-01-21
    soldstatus $180,000
18. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Perfect starter home or investment with super low taxes! Close to shopping, Beach and Marina., Additional information: Appearance:Good

19. 2020-07-21
    listed $200,000 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Perfect starter home or investment with super low taxes! Close to shopping, Beach and Marina., Additional information: Appearance:Good

20. 2018-04-01
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed
21. 2018-03-20
    soldstatus $115,000
22. 2018-01-02
    status Under Contract
23. 2017-06-13
    listed $125,000 New
24. 2006-12-01
    soldstatus $178,500
25. 1991-12-10
    soldstatus $45,382

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,273 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: +$796/yr (+$66/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$3,477
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,666
• − Management: −$2,666
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$2,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$605
• After-tax cash flow: $3,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+561.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $299,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-23 Sold (MLS) $180,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-21 Listed $200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-01 Sold (MLS) $115,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-13 Listed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $178,500 Public Records
• 1991-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $45,382 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,477 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.