2628 Marfa Ave · Dallas, TX 75216

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1951 6,673 sqft lot $158/sqft · 9% below area Est $180k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for investors! 3-2 with a generously sized backyard. This property is a full rehab and is being sold AS-IS, making it perfect for a fix-and-flip or long-term rental investment. Cash Offers only.

Key facts

• Full rehab
• Sold as-is
• 6,673 sq ft lot

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED BACKYARD
• FULL REHAB
• SOLD AS-IS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.33%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,007
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -27.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2541 Fordham Rd	0.27mi	2/1.0	816 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$227	84
2546 Jennings Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	820 (-1%)	8mo	$185,000	$226	81
2323 Deer Path Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0	790 (-4%)	1mo	$114,500	$145	78
2348 Village Way	0.30mi	2/1.0	840 (+2%)	6mo	$125,000	$149	78
2437 Stovall Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0	768 (-7%)	7mo	$135,000	$176	69
2449 Stovall Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	816 (-1%)	10mo	$134,900	$165	68
2510 Wilhurt Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	888 (+8%)	2mo	$130,000	$146	66
2303 Custer Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	784 (-5%)	10mo	$182,000	$232	59
2646 Scotland Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0	768 (-7%)	10mo	$114,000	$148	52
2765 Scotland Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	768 (-7%)	4mo	$169,998	$221	51
2671 Moffatt Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	720 (-13%)	1mo	$139,999	$194	47
1713 Hemphill Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	932 (+13%)	5mo	$165,000	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,818
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $13,754
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75216

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2538 Stovall Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	986	$1,625	$1.65	5d	1	0.26mi
3320 Mundy Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1010	$1,695	$1.68	43d	1	0.29mi
2503 Stovall Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	768	$2,300	$2.99	43d	1	0.29mi
2303 Deer Path Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$1,650	$2.09	7d	1	0.34mi
3206 Kellogg Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.5	1076	$1,800	$1.67	43d	1	0.38mi
2625 E Illinois Ave Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	19d	1	0.54mi
2625 E Illinois Ave Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	3d	1	0.54mi
2625 E Illinois Ave Unit 118 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$999	$1.54	19d	1	0.54mi
2625 E Illinois Ave Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	12d	18	0.54mi
2625 E Illinois Ave Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$950	$1.46	18d	1	0.54mi
2625 E Illinois Ave Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$999	$1.54	24d	1	0.54mi
2625 E Illinois Ave Unit 102 Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	24d	1	0.56mi
2821 E Kiest Blvd Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$990	$1.41	7d	1	0.93mi
1618 Marfa Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	43d	1	1.12mi
2906 E Kiest Blvd Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	798	$1,235	$1.55	1d	5	1.14mi
4417 S Lancaster Rd Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,595	$1.82	2d	1	1.17mi
4836 Sunnyvale St Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	515	$1,330	$2.58	43d	7	1.17mi
2751 E Ledbetter Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	794	$1,186	$1.49	43d	3	1.24mi
3015 E Ledbetter Dr Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1030	$1,100	$1.07	3d	1	1.27mi
3035 E Ledbetter Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	643	$1,275	$1.98	3d	1	1.32mi
1334 Marfa Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,475	$1.34	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $130,000 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Great opportunity for investors! 3-2 with a generously sized backyard. This property is a full rehab and is being sold AS-IS, making it perfect for a fix-and-flip or long-term rental investment. Cash Offers only.

15. 2025-03-26
    status Pending
16. 2025-03-25
    listed $124,900 Active
17. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus
18. 2019-05-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,524 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,524 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$37
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,894
• Household income: $41,386
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2465.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 14% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.35%
• Current HPI: 299.1825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.20%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2022-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,524 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.