180 Cranberry Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$559,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1995 6,098 sqft lot Est $436k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME to this BEAUTIFUL SUN DRENCHED MASSIVE home. .. NEW Kitchen. .. NEW Stainless Steel Appliances. .. NEW Bath. .. NEW Hardwood Floors. .. New Boiler and Hot Water Heater. .. Large Private Loft. .. Skylights. .. Fully renovated turnkey property. .. Nothing to do but bring your suitcases. .. Full Finished Basement with 8' ceilings. .. outside entrance and Egress Windows. .. Possible multi-generational living with proper permits. .. LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION. .. at the steps of the $500 million revitalization of Mastic Beach. .. Get in on the ground floor. .. Convenient to all. .. Beaches. .. Parks. .. Stores. .. Highways. .. LIRR station. ..

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Turnkey property
• Convenient to stores

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• TURNKEY PROPERTY
• CONVENIENT TO BEACHES
• CONVENIENT TO HIGHWAYS
• CONVENIENT TO STORES
• CONVENIENT TO LIRR STATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Trash collection (public); Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One-and-one-half story
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Not waterfront; Finished walk-out basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Open kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Walk-through kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Finished full attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry hookups in basement and in bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $559k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (36.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $355k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John S Hobart Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,274 of 2,108 statewide, top 61%, 798 students, 58% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($551k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $559k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,075 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.89%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
242 Bayview Dr	0.04mi	4/1.5	1,000 (-13%)	5mo	$422,000	$422	66
231 Elm Rd W	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	2mo	$477,000	$434	65
344 Elm Rd W	0.54mi	4/1.0	1,092 (-5%)	1mo	$415,000	$380	58
77 Diana Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	4mo	$400,000	$364	53
184 Bayview Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (+13%)	5mo	$280,000	$215	52
20 Bogota Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-5%)	3mo	$460,000	$423	51
277 Commack Rd	0.63mi	4/1.0	1,200 (+4%)	5mo	$450,000	$375	51
56 Brushwood Dr	0.73mi	4/1.0	1,074 (-6%)	1mo	$360,000	$335	46
27 Pinewood Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (+9%)	1mo	$598,000	$478	46
152 Dogwood Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	991 (-14%)	1mo	$525,000	$530	40
40 Pinewood Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-8%)	5mo	$365,000	$348	39
11 Edwards Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,310 (+14%)	5mo	$465,000	$355	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $230,680
• Equity at exit: $503,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $737,649
• Equity at exit: $1,086,014

Cash invested: $156,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,552 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,931
• Tax from tax record: −$802 /mo · $9,625/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$746
• Net cashflow: $-1,160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,021

Max offer price $354,075

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-844	-5% $-1,002	+0% $-1,160	+5% $-1,318	+10% $-1,476
Rent	-10% $-1,441	-5% $-1,300	+0% $-1,160	+5% $-1,020	+10% $-879
Rate	-1.0pp $-879	-0.5pp $-1,018	base $-1,160	+0.5pp $-1,305	+1.0pp $-1,452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $139,750
• Closing costs: $16,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Hackensack Rd Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	792	$3,150	$3.98	17d	1	0.59mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	44d	1	0.86mi
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	3d	1	0.91mi
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	2d	1	1.13mi
5 Cedar Rd E Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	740	$2,900	$3.92	2d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 654-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $559,000 Pending 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $559,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $559,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $559,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $559,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $559,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-05-16
   listed $559,000 Active
9. 2025-12-27
   listed $550,000 Active
10. 2025-12-14
    historical
11. 2018-03-18
    historical
12. 2017-06-20
    listed $259,000 New
13. 2012-06-27
    soldstatus $235,000
14. 1995-12-27
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,625 · $802/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,625 · $802/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,313
• − Property taxes: −$9,625
• − Insurance: −$2,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,410
• − Management: −$3,410
• − Depreciation: −$16,262
• Taxable loss: −$24,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,805
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+935.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $559,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Listed $550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-14 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-20 Listed $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,625 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.