1923 Newhouse Ave · St. Louis, MO 63107

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1890 3,175 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

3-story residence with Hyde Park, on a quiet street, with views in Historic St. Louis offering plenty of room with 4 bedrooms, 2 ½ bathrooms. The home was recently renovated in 2019. Two force air heating and cooling systems with high efficiency 1st and 2nd fl. Unit. Separate system for 3rd floor. High efficiency water heater. Newer 200-amp Electrical panel as well as a newer sewer lateral line. Walk out deck from master bedroom. Off street parking in back. Home Inspection was recently completed in November 2025 and can be provided upon request. Currently rented for $1,450/month. No seller financing.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• Traditional layout

Tags

• IMMEDIATE RENTAL INCOME
• TRADITIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bryan Hill Elem. (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 182 students, 98% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.19%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,160
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3916 N 21st St	0.13mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,032 (-6%)	23mo	$39,900	$20	60
2927 Harper St	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-7%)	8mo	$52,250	$26	56
1506 Mallinckrodt St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,308 (+7%)	18mo	$74,900	$32	50
2616 Natural Bridge Ave	0.57mi	4/3.0	1,862 (-14%)	8mo	$16,000	$9	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,065
• Equity at exit: $24,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $17,967
• Equity at exit: $22,444

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63107

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $362/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $898

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	43d	1	0.57mi
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	23d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   price $120,000
3. 2025-12-08
   price $130,000
4. 2025-11-19
   status Active
5. 2025-11-06
   status Pending
6. 2025-10-30
   price $140,000
7. 2025-10-13
   price $150,000
8. 2025-09-29
   listed $160,000 Active
9. 2012-01-18
   soldstatus $130,000
10. 2008-04-23
    soldstatus
11. 2005-05-16
    soldstatus $26,000
12. 2004-10-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $362 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$802/yr (+$67/mo · 221.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$362
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $90
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 9,082

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.75%
• Current HPI: 92.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+361.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $160,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $362 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.