Kitson Plan · Princeton, TX 75407

$245,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 600 Days on market

↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 600 days

🏗️ New construction. The $245,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,966.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lacy El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 670 students, 59% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 600 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,701 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 600 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,966
• List price: $245,999
• Delta: -13.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1024 Calley Pear Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	2mo	$217,724	$155	83
1036 Calley Pear Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	6mo	$223,899	$160	80
1016 Calley Pear Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	4mo	$222,324	$158	80
1000 Calley Pear Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	5mo	$218,724	$156	80
1004 Calley Pear Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	4mo	$223,324	$158	79
1037 Calley Pear Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	6mo	$251,749	$180	78
912 Calley Pear Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	6mo	$230,774	$165	77
1009 Mesquite Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+3%)	2mo	$245,000	$170	72
1209 Angelina Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-6%)	4mo	$240,456	$182	59
621 Hemingway Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+14%)	5mo	$345,000	$215	33
1206 Booker Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+14%)	6mo	$310,505	$193	33
1200 Booker Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+14%)	6mo	$330,126	$206	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-77,420
• Equity at exit: $42,489

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-122,570
• Equity at exit: $24,639

Cash invested: $79,790 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $227,144

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-203	-5% $-301	+0% $-400	+5% $-498	+10% $-597
Rent	-10% $-557	-5% $-478	+0% $-400	+5% $-321	+10% $-243
Rate	-1.0pp $-256	-0.5pp $-327	base $-400	+0.5pp $-473	+1.0pp $-549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,241
• Closing costs: $8,549
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1242 Tupelo Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	26d	1	0.08mi
1230 Cherry Bark Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,925	$1.34	9d	1	0.13mi
1222 Tallow Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,945	$1.17	45d	1	0.15mi
508 Poplar St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,995	$1.09	19d	1	0.18mi
1117 Loblolly Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$1,795	$1.01	22d	1	0.21mi
1329 Plum Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,055	$1.43	26d	1	0.25mi
1205 Catclaw Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	45d	1	0.25mi
1033 Sourgum St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,850	$1.11	14d	1	0.26mi
1033 Sourgum St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,850	$1.11	9d	1	0.26mi
1201 Catclaw Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	45d	1	0.26mi
1209 Mesquite Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,995	$1.09	14d	1	0.28mi
1012 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1499	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.30mi
1008 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,700	$1.35	20d	1	0.30mi
1040 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	45d	1	0.32mi
1032 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,820	$1.14	9d	1	0.33mi
1024 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,710	$1.22	26d	1	0.34mi
1208 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	0.36mi
1000 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,700	$1.21	45d	1	0.36mi
1029 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,725	$1.23	45d	1	0.36mi
932 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,750	$1.39	46d	1	0.36mi
900 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	14d	1	0.36mi
928 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,680	$1.19	9d	1	0.37mi
905 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,885	$1.34	19d	1	0.38mi
1105 Daffodil St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,090	$1.30	20d	1	0.41mi
1325 Englemann Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,795	$1.08	7d	1	0.42mi
1109 Sassafras Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	12d	1	0.43mi
235 Magnolia Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,899	$1.17	26d	1	0.44mi
835 Ginkgo Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	0.46mi
1228 Arizona Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,795	$1.11	20d	1	0.46mi
827 Ginkgo Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,849	$1.11	45d	1	0.47mi
1206 Arizona Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,795	$1.11	19d	1	0.51mi
230 Silverleaf Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,875	$1.15	14d	1	0.52mi
309 Hackberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,800	$1.13	45d	1	0.52mi
1309 Shumard Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,875	$1.13	21d	1	0.55mi
922 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,900	$1.03	7d	1	0.56mi
921 Mossycup ST Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,950	$1.17	6d	1	0.58mi
921 Mossycup ST Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,990	$1.19	20d	1	0.58mi
1314 Shumard Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,875	$1.15	1d	1	0.59mi
905 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,850	$1.28	20d	1	0.59mi
203 Cedar Creek Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,975	$1.49	20d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $245,999 Active 600 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,999 Active 597 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,999 Active 596 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,999 Active 595 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,999 Active 594 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,999 Active 592 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,999 Active 591 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,999 Active 588 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,999 Active 587 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,999 Active 586 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,999 Active 583 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,999 Active 582 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,999 Active 581 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,999 Active 580 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,999 Active 579 DOM
16. 2025-03-11
    price $265,999 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2024-11-20
    price $264,999 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2024-10-29
    listed $278,999 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,963
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$8,290
• Taxable loss: −$9,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,381
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $265,999 Zillow
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $264,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-29 Listed $278,999 Zillow