320 Johnson Rd · Trail Creek, IN 46360

$150,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1890 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is knocking in Trail Creek! This classic bungalow has been loved by the same owner for 40 years and is now ready for its next chapter. Freshly discovered hardwood floors hint at the charm and character waiting to be uncovered throughout, and with some TLC this home has serious potential. The open-concept floor plan is bright and welcoming, with two bedrooms on the main level and three additional bedrooms upstairs. The upper level also offers the opportunity to easily add a second bathroom, making the layout even more functional for the right buyer. Laundry is conveniently located in the basement. Some work has already been started, giving the next owner a head start on transform

Key facts

• Massive lot
• Hardwood floors
• Detached garage

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• MASSIVE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Additional off-street parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected (well); Septic tank
• Home design: Two-story; Built in 1890
• Construction: Has basement
• Exterior features: Private yard; Rain gutters; Neighborhood view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3; Bedroom 4; Bedroom 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Basement (unfinished, other)
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#71 in IN, #4,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Michigan City Area Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #262 of 301 in IN (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 216 units permitted in LaPorte County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• LaPorte County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.58%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 Martin Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,298 (+4%)	5mo	$210,000	$91	71
421 Trail St	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,133 (-4%)	9mo	$339,900	$159	68
105 Starling Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,090 (-6%)	7mo	$289,950	$139	57
403 Firefly Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,100 (-5%)	8mo	$292,500	$139	56
312 Black Oak Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,416 (+9%)	18mo	$265,000	$110	56
306 Leo Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,528 (+14%)	12mo	$282,000	$112	54
2118 Red Oak Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,941 (-12%)	10mo	$300,000	$155	53
424 Laurel Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,501 (+13%)	13mo	$324,900	$130	46
104 Brookdale Ave	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,088 (-6%)	18mo	$279,900	$134	46
1903 E Coolspring Ave	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,154 (-3%)	18mo	$299,000	$139	45
406 Chapala Pkwy	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+11%)	14mo	$385,000	$156	42
2532 Bruce Dr	0.64mi	4/1.5	1,932 (-13%)	16mo	$220,000	$114	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,167
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $81,516
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46360

• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
910 S Carroll Ave Michigan City, IN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1187	$1,600	$1.35	43d	3	0.78mi
403 Herring Gull Ln Michigan City, IN	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$1,325	$1.22	43d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $150,000 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $926 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$607
• After-tax cash flow: $4,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Michigan City Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 1806570
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,629
• Composite: 21.76/100
• National rank: #8257
• State rank: #262 of 301 in IN

Livability — Trail Creek

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #4553

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trail Creek, IN
• County: La Porte County · 88,580 people
• Metro: Michigan City-La Porte, IN
• Population (ZIP): 43,817
• Household income: $59,266
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1152.0

Population outlook (LaPorte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 109,757 people
• By 2030: 108,288 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 105,070 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 102,330 · -6.8%
• By 2075: 97,009 · -11.6%
• By 2100: 86,459 · -21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · LaPorte

• 2024 margin: R (+14.1) · D 42.1% · R 56.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: -14.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.1 2020: R+7.2 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+12.6 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.27%
• Current HPI: 206.0882
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.72%
• Metro: Michigan City-La Porte, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $150,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $577 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.