406 Birch Hl Unit BIR406 · Oakland, MI 48363

$35,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 195 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a community garden, a fitness center, and a playground, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community garden
• Playground

Tags

• COMMUNITY GARDEN
• FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $248 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $31,504 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 55.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 175.36%
• DSCR: 8.80
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.73×
• Total profit: $87,529
• Equity at exit: $5,338

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.60×
• Total profit: $196,487
• Equity at exit: $3,095

Cash invested: $10,024 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48363

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$188
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$45 /mo · $537/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $1,465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $313

Max offer price $35,800

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,950
• Closing costs: $1,074
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,800 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,800 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,800 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,800 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,800 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,800 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,800 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,800 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $35,800 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,800 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,800 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,800 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,800 Active 177 DOM
14. 2025-12-05
    listed $35,800 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a community garden, a fitness center, and a playground, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,005
• − Property taxes: −$537
• − Insurance: −$179
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − Depreciation: −$1,041
• Taxable income: $18,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,340
• After-tax cash flow: $13,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Oakland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 28,389
• Population (ZIP): 7,434

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.38%
• Current HPI: 183.4389
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $35,800 Zillow