12 Bogey Cir · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 276 Days on market

Built 1981 3,330 sqft lot $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled between 2 golf courses, this is the perfect residence or 2nd home for any golfer looking for an affordable home in a centrally located neighborhood that is the area's best value! Freshly painted interior and exterior home offers peace of mind with 2023 A/C system and a BRAND NEW ROOF, to be put on prior to closing by seller, eliminating insurance concerns. Commercial rain gutters installed 2021. Oversize 14 x 19 one-car garage with lots of natural light and storage closet. Screen room can easily be converted to house your golf cart, if desired. Ample driveway provides parking for 2 cars side by side, as well as golf cart parking in front of screen room. Primary bedroom has adjacent home office/den that is under central A/C, providing a private space for whatever use you like. Newer W/ D in laundry closet within the home. Newer vinyl floors in bedrooms, and laminate floors in rest of living space. Double pane windows and updated bathrooms with new cabinets and comfort-height toilets. Affordable HOA annual dues of $275 provide mandatory termite bond and irrigation system with water to sprinklers. Heated Community Pool is available by optional membership and purchase of pool certificate. Close to Historic Canal Street shopping and dining, and eclectic Flagler Avenue and the beach are but a short drive or even a bike ride.

Key facts

• Screen room
• Ample driveway
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• OVERSIZE SINGLE-CAR GARAGE
• SCREEN ROOM
• AMPLE DRIVEWAY
• HOME OFFICE
• NEWER W D

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $235k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-15,711
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $32,607
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32168

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,175/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $394	-5% $328	+0% $261	+5% $195	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $175	+0% $261	+5% $347	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $321	base $261	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Birdie Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1046	$2,600	$2.49	24d	1	0.11mi
14 Birdie Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,775	$1.67	24d	1	0.12mi
1054 Claudia St New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,750	$1.74	24d	1	0.65mi
527 Terriere Way New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	12d	1	0.74mi
907 Hamilton St New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,085	$1.56	12d	1	0.75mi
618 N Duss St New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	20d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 271 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $235,000 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 259 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 258 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 257 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    status Active 1348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

    Nestled between 2 golf courses, this is the perfect residence or 2nd home for any golfer looking for an affordable home in a centrally located neighborhood that is the area's best value! Freshly painted interior and exterior home offers peace of mind with 2023 A/C system and a BRAND NEW ROOF, to be put on prior to closing by seller, eliminating insurance concerns. Commercial rain gutters installed 2021. Oversize 14 x 19 one-car garage with lots of natural light and storage closet. Screen room can easily be converted to house your golf cart, if desired. Ample driveway provides parking for 2 cars side by side, as well as golf cart parking in front of screen room. Primary bedroom has adjacent home office/den that is under central A/C, providing a private space for whatever use you like. Newer W/ D in laundry closet within the home. Newer vinyl floors in bedrooms, and laminate floors in rest of living space. Double pane windows and updated bathrooms with new cabinets and comfort-height toilets. Affordable HOA annual dues of $275 provide mandatory termite bond and irrigation system with water to sprinklers. Heated Community Pool is available by optional membership and purchase of pool certificate. Close to Historic Canal Street shopping and dining, and eclectic Flagler Avenue and the beach are but a short drive or even a bike ride.

17. 2026-04-09
    status Pending 1348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

    Nestled between 2 golf courses, this is the perfect residence or 2nd home for any golfer looking for an affordable home in a centrally located neighborhood that is the area's best value! Freshly painted interior and exterior home offers peace of mind with 2023 A/C system and a BRAND NEW ROOF, to be put on prior to closing by seller, eliminating insurance concerns. Commercial rain gutters installed 2021. Oversize 14 x 19 one-car garage with lots of natural light and storage closet. Screen room can easily be converted to house your golf cart, if desired. Ample driveway provides parking for 2 cars side by side, as well as golf cart parking in front of screen room. Primary bedroom has adjacent home office/den that is under central A/C, providing a private space for whatever use you like. Newer W/ D in laundry closet within the home. Newer vinyl floors in bedrooms, and laminate floors in rest of living space. Double pane windows and updated bathrooms with new cabinets and comfort-height toilets. Affordable HOA annual dues of $275 provide mandatory termite bond and irrigation system with water to sprinklers. Heated Community Pool is available by optional membership and purchase of pool certificate. Close to Historic Canal Street shopping and dining, and eclectic Flagler Avenue and the beach are but a short drive or even a bike ride.

18. 2026-03-07
    price $239,900 1348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

    Nestled between 2 golf courses, this is the perfect residence or 2nd home for any golfer looking for an affordable home in a centrally located neighborhood that is the area's best value! Freshly painted interior and exterior home offers peace of mind with 2023 A/C system and a BRAND NEW ROOF, to be put on prior to closing by seller, eliminating insurance concerns. Commercial rain gutters installed 2021. Oversize 14 x 19 one-car garage with lots of natural light and storage closet. Screen room can easily be converted to house your golf cart, if desired. Ample driveway provides parking for 2 cars side by side, as well as golf cart parking in front of screen room. Primary bedroom has adjacent home office/den that is under central A/C, providing a private space for whatever use you like. Newer W/ D in laundry closet within the home. Newer vinyl floors in bedrooms, and laminate floors in rest of living space. Double pane windows and updated bathrooms with new cabinets and comfort-height toilets. Affordable HOA annual dues of $275 provide mandatory termite bond and irrigation system with water to sprinklers. Heated Community Pool is available by optional membership and purchase of pool certificate. Close to Historic Canal Street shopping and dining, and eclectic Flagler Avenue and the beach are but a short drive or even a bike ride.

19. 2025-09-10
    listed $255,000 Active 1348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

    Nestled between 2 golf courses, this is the perfect residence or 2nd home for any golfer looking for an affordable home in a centrally located neighborhood that is the area's best value! Freshly painted interior and exterior home offers peace of mind with 2023 A/C system and a BRAND NEW ROOF, to be put on prior to closing by seller, eliminating insurance concerns. Commercial rain gutters installed 2021. Oversize 14 x 19 one-car garage with lots of natural light and storage closet. Screen room can easily be converted to house your golf cart, if desired. Ample driveway provides parking for 2 cars side by side, as well as golf cart parking in front of screen room. Primary bedroom has adjacent home office/den that is under central A/C, providing a private space for whatever use you like. Newer W/ D in laundry closet within the home. Newer vinyl floors in bedrooms, and laminate floors in rest of living space. Double pane windows and updated bathrooms with new cabinets and comfort-height toilets. Affordable HOA annual dues of $275 provide mandatory termite bond and irrigation system with water to sprinklers. Heated Community Pool is available by optional membership and purchase of pool certificate. Close to Historic Canal Street shopping and dining, and eclectic Flagler Avenue and the beach are but a short drive or even a bike ride.

20. 1992-12-09
    soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,175 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$775/yr (+$65/mo · 66.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,175
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$187
• After-tax cash flow: $3,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Smyrna Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 18,726
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,847
• Household income: $77,083
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1139.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.58%
• Current HPI: 350.4259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+317.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,175 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.