507 Lake Park Rd · Valdosta, GA 31601

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1980 6,534 sqft lot $42/sqft · 18% below area Est $61k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment special! This home needs some work but has so much potential. Property has been damaged by storm and tarp has been torn off.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Listed 33 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($966 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Valdosta City (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #149 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.88%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,154
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -18.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 Way St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,151 (-3%)	1mo	$32,000	$28	83
413 S Lee St	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,019 (-14%)	6mo	$8,800	$9	62
214 Wisenbaker Ln	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (-9%)	8mo	$57,000	$53	58
517 Hudson St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-12%)	16mo	$62,000	$60	57
3 Wesley Ln	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,175 (-1%)	4mo	$68,750	$59	56
716 E Magnolia St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,280 (+8%)	15mo	$38,000	$30	45
4 Martin Luther King, Jr. Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,327 (+12%)	8mo	$165,000	$124	38
6 Sharper Cir	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (-7%)	15mo	$143,800	$130	36
507 N Barack Obama Blvd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (-13%)	6mo	$79,900	$77	35
526 Smith Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+14%)	2mo	$144,900	$108	32
720 E Magnolia St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (-14%)	18mo	$77,000	$76	32
831 Old Clyattville Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,066 (-10%)	18mo	$58,000	$54	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $26,579
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $84,398
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31601

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $966 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $192/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $378

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
825 Bethune Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	834	$895	$1.07	20d	1	0.51mi
522 Green St Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	1020	$900	$0.88	20d	1	0.60mi
808 Penny Pl Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.72mi
1205 Bethune St Unit B Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,000	$0.87	20d	1	0.77mi
1205 Bethune St Unit A Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,000	$0.91	20d	1	0.77mi
704 Conoley Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,250	$0.96	43d	1	0.94mi
205 E Adair St Unit 4 Valdosta, GA	1.0	1.0	700	$550	$0.79	43d	1	0.95mi
200 W Adair St Unit A9 Valdosta, GA	1.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	20d	1	1.07mi
1342 Partridge Pl Unit A Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	878	$895	$1.02	43d	1	1.11mi
1010 N Toombs St Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,000	$0.95	20d	3	1.24mi
1005 N Oak St Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	1087	$795	$0.73	43d	1	1.24mi
1004 N Oak St Valdosta, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	866	$750	$0.87	20d	3	1.26mi
743 E Brookwood Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	906	$895	$0.99	43d	1	1.29mi
1029 Johnson St Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	986	$900	$0.91	43d	1	1.31mi
604 E Brookwood Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	43d	1	1.39mi
803 Lausanne Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	994	$1,095	$1.10	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $49,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-04-28
   listed $49,900 Active 135-char remark
5. 2024-05-03
   price $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $459 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$267/yr (+$22/mo · 138.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$192
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$927
• − Management: −$927
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $4,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valdosta City
• NCES district ID: 1305310
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,634
• Composite: 14.79/100
• National rank: #9388
• State rank: #149 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valdosta, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 31,302
• Household income: $36,111
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2016.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.12%
• Current HPI: 121.5948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.34%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $40,000 SGMLS

Property tax history

+30.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $192 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.