220 Reno Rd · Little Ponderosa, OK 73950

$111,111

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1975 1.46 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contact Stutzman Realty & Auction to learn more about this residential property located in Turpin, Oklahoma. This five bedroom, three bathroom home will be selling by Public Auction with NO RESERVE on Saturday, March 1, 2025 at 12:00 NOON. * * Personal property shall sell at 10:00am. Built in 1975, this 4,908 square foot home is situated on 1.46 acres within the quiet neighborhood of Little Ponderosa. Home features include central HVAC, metal roof, two-car attached garage, carport, in-ground swimming pool and a 20x60 shop building with workshop area and vehicle parking. 5% non-refundable Earnest Money shall be required upon signing of the purchase sale agreement. Closing Fees and Tit

Key facts

• Central hvac
• Metal roof
• Workshop area

Tags

• IN-GROUND SWIMMING POOL
• 20X60 SHOP BUILDING
• WORKSHOP AREA
• VEHICLE PARKING
• CENTRAL HVAC
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $111k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $111k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Turpin (rural): math 25% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #131 of 270 in OK (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($768 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Beaver County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,777 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.84%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $42,756
• Equity at exit: $60,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $113,668
• Equity at exit: $102,058

Cash invested: $31,111 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73950

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$583
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,147/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $111,111

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,778
• Closing costs: $3,333
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-07-25
   soldstatus $210,000
2. 2025-03-02
   status Pending
3. 2024-11-20
   listed $111,111 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,147 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,147 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,224
• − Property taxes: −$2,147
• − Insurance: −$556
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − Depreciation: −$3,232
• Taxable income: $2,068
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$496
• After-tax cash flow: $3,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turpin
• NCES district ID: 4030330
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $54,069
• Composite: 19.99/100
• National rank: #8668
• State rank: #131 of 270 in OK

Livability — Little Ponderosa

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Ponderosa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 1,342

Population outlook (Beaver County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,381 people
• By 2030: 5,465 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 5,336 · -0.8%
• By 2050: 5,561 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 7,051 · +31.0%
• By 2100: 9,341 · +73.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Danish 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 41% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Beaver

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+83.8) · D 7.4% · R 91.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: -78.5pp · 2024: -83.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+83.8 2020: R+81.6 2016: R+81.0 2012: R+78.9 2008: R+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Current HPI: 147.9322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+89.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-02 Pending — SWKSBOR
• 2024-11-20 Listed $111,111 SWKSBOR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,147 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.